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Global financial conditions, country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries

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  • Ozge Akinci

Abstract

This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) Global financial risk shocks explain about 20 percent of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozge Akinci, 2013. "Global financial conditions, country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 1085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1085
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    Cited by:

    1. Julián Caballero & Andres Fernandez & Jongho Park, 2016. "On Corporate Borrowing, Credit Spreads and Economic Activity in Emerging Economies: An Empirical Investigation," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7793, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Magali Dauvin, 2016. "Sovereign spreads in emerging economies: do natural resources matter?," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-11, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Julián Caballero & Andres Fernandez & Jongho Park, 2016. "On Corporate Borrowing, Credit Spreads and Economic Activity in Emerging Economies: An Empirical Investigation," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 95296, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Andres Fernandez & Andres Gonzalez & Diego Rodriguez, 2015. "Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster; Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 15/280, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    6. João Barata R B Barroso & Emanuel W Kohlscheen & Eduardo J A Lima, 2014. "What have central banks in EMEs learned about the international transmission of monetary policy in recent years?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 95-109 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Akinci, Ozge & Queraltó, Albert, 2014. "Banks, Capital Flows and Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1121, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Bahadir, Berrak & Lastrapes, William D., 2015. "Emerging market economies and the world interest rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-28.
    9. Hur, Sewon & Kondo, Illenin O., 2016. "A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 44-63.
    10. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:368-376 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Izabela Karpowicz & Fabian Lipinsky & Jongho Park, 2016. "A Closer Look at Sectoral Financial Linkages in Brazil I; Corporations’ Financial Statements," IMF Working Papers 16/45, International Monetary Fund.
    12. repec:eee:inecon:v:109:y:2017:i:c:p:43-67 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Akinci, Ozge & Olmstead-Rumsey, Jane, 2015. "How Effective are Macroprudential Policies? An Empirical Investigation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1136, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Nargiza Alymkulova & Nurlan Atabaev & Junus Ganiev, 2016. "Var — analysis of global financial economic crisis impact on public budget and unemployment: evidence from the economy of the Kyrgyz republic," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1090-1101.
    15. Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2016. "Monetary News, U.S. Interest Rate and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies," Economics Working Papers ECO2016/10, European University Institute.

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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