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The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America

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  • Canova, Fabio

Abstract

I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US shocks are identified using the procedure of Canova and De Nicolo? (2002) and treated as exogenous with respect to Latin American economies. Posterior estimates for individual and average effects are constructed. US Monetary shocks produce significant fluctuations in Latin America, but real demand and supply shocks do not. Floaters and currency boarders display similar output responses but different inflation and interest rate responses. The financial channel plays a crucial role in the transmission. US disturbances explain important portions of the variability Latin American macrovariables, produce continental cyclical fluctuations and, in two episodes, destabilizing nominal exchange rate effects. Policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Canova, Fabio, 2003. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America," CEPR Discussion Papers 3963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3963
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural shocks; Business cycles; Exchange rate regimes; Bayesian methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade

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