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Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?

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  • Cwik, Tobias
  • Müller, Gernot J.
  • Wolters, Maik H.

Abstract

This paper explores the role of trade integration--or openness--for monetary policy transmission in a medium-scale new Keynesian model. Allowing for strategic complementarities in price setting, we highlight a new dimension of the exchange rate channel by which monetary policy directly impacts domestic inflation: a monetary contraction which appreciates the exchange rate lowers the local currency price of imported goods; this, in turn, induces domestic producers to lower their prices too. We pin down key parameters of the model by matching impulse responses obtained from a vector autoregression on time series for the US relative to the euro area. Our estimation procedure yields plausible parameter values and suggests a strong role for strategic complementarities. Counterfactual simulations show that openness alters monetary transmission significantly. While the contractionary effect of a monetary policy shock on inflation and output tends to increase in openness, we find that monetary policy's control over inflation increases, as the output decline which is necessary to bring about a given reduction of inflation is smaller in more open economies.

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  • Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 545-564, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:4:p:545-564
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    3. Bruno Coric & Lena Malesevic Perovic & Vladimir Simic, 2015. "A Cross-Country Analysis of Monetary Policy Effects on Prices," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(5), pages 377-390, October.
    4. Cogan, John F. & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik H., 2013. "Fiscal consolidation strategy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 404-421.
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    8. Bruno Ćorić & Lena Malešević Perović & Vladimir Šimić, 2016. "Openness and the Strength of Monetary Transmission: International Evidence," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 66(4), pages 639-659, December.
    9. Georgios Georgiadis & Arnaud Mehl, 2015. "Trilemma, not dilemma: financial globalisation and Monetary policy effectiveness," Globalization Institute Working Papers 222, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. Van Nguyen, Phuong, 2020. "Evaluating the forecasting accuracy of the closed- and open economy New Keynesian DSGE models," Dynare Working Papers 59, CEPREMAP.
    11. Fiedler Salomon & Jannsen Nils & Reitz Stefan & Wolters Maik, 2016. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? A Literature Review with an Application to the Euro Area," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 67(3), pages 231-253, December.
    12. Yoshiyuki Fukuda & Yuki Kimura & Nao Sudo & Hiroshi Ugai, 2013. "Cross-country Transmission Effect of the U.S. Monetary Shock under Global Integration," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-16, Bank of Japan.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy transmission Open economy Trade integration Exchange rate channel Strategic complementarity;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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