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An estimated two-country EA-US model with limited exchange rate pass-through

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory De Walque

    (NBB, Economics and Research Department)

  • Thomas Lejeune

    (NBB, Economics and Research Department)

  • Yuliya Rychalovska

    (University of Namur)

  • Rafael Wouters

    (NBB, Economics and Research Department)

Abstract

We develop a two-country New Keynesian model with sticky local currency pricing,distribution costs and a demand elasticity increasing with the relative price. These features help to reduce the exchange rate pass-through to import price at the border and down the chain towards consumption price, both in the short and the long run. Oil and imported goods enter at the same time as inputs in the production process and as consumption components. The model is estimated using Bayesian full information maximum likelihood techniques and based on real and nominal macroeconomic series for the euro area and the United States together with the bilateral exchange rate and oil prices. The estimated model is shown to perform well in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise and is able to reproduce most of the cross-series co-variances observed in the data. It is then used for forecast error variance decomposition and historical decomposition exercises.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory De Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Yuliya Rychalovska & Rafael Wouters, 2017. "An estimated two-country EA-US model with limited exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Research 317, National Bank of Belgium.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201703-317
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    2. Volha Audzei & Jan Bruha, 2020. "A Model of the Euro Area, China and the United States: Trade Links and Trade Wars," Working Papers 2020/6, Czech National Bank.
    3. Jacob, Punnoose & Uusküla, Lenno, 2019. "Deep habits and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 67-89.
    4. Debarsy, Nicolas & Dossougoin, Cyrille & Ertur, Cem & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels: A spatial econometrics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 21-45.
    5. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Joscha Beckmann & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "Exchange rate fluctuations and the financial channel in emerging economies," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 83, Bank of Lithuania.
    7. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Forecasting in the euro area: The role of the US long rate," Economic Letters 5/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. M. Deroose & A. Rannenberg & J. Wauters, 2019. "Separating the trend from the cycle : The debate on euro area potential output and implications for monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-28, September.
    9. Hart, Janine & Clemens, Marius, 2019. "A search and matching approach to business-cycle migration in the euro area," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203659, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. G. de Walque & T. Lejeune & A. Stevens, 2019. "Exchange rates, prices, monetary policy and competitiveness," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 25-46, September.
    11. Eva Ortega & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Papers 2016, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Open-economy macroeconomics; DSGE models; exchange-rate pass through; Bayesian inference; forecasting; policy analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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