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Exchange rate pass-through into euro area inflation. An estimated structural model

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Burlon

    ()

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We evaluate the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into euro area (EA) inflation by estimating an open economy New Keynesian model with Bayesian methods. In the model ERPT is incomplete because of local currency pricing and distribution services, with the latter allowing to distinguish between ERPT at the border and ERPT at the consumer level. Our main results are the following ones. First, ERPT into EA prices is, in general, high. Second, it is particularly high in correspondence of exchange rate and monetary policy shocks. Third, the EA monetary stance is relevant for ERPT; in particular, ERPT is higher if the stance is accommodative in correspondence of expansionary demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Burlon & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through into euro area inflation. An estimated structural model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1192, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1192_18
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; import prices; pass-through; monetary policy; euro area.;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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