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Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries

Author

Listed:
  • Eva Ortega

    (Banco de España)

  • Chiara Osbat

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

Aggregate exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import and consumer prices in the EU is currently lower than it was in the 1990s and is non-linear. Low estimated aggregate ERPT to consumer prices does not at all mean that exchange rate movements do not have an impact on inflation, as aggregate rules of thumb mask substantial heterogeneities across countries, industries and time periods owing to structural, cyclical and policy factors. Looking also at new micro evidence, four key structural characteristics explain ERPT across industries or sectors: (i) import content of consumption, (ii) share of imports invoiced in own currency or in a third dominant currency, (iii) integration of a country and its trading partners in global value chains, and (iv) market power. In the existing literature there is also a robust evidence across models showing that each shock which causes the exchange rate to move has a different price response, meaning that the combination of shocks that lies behind the cycle at any point in time has an impact on ERPT. Finally, monetary policy itself affects ERPT. Credible and aggressive monetary policy reduces the observed ex post ERPT, as agents expect monetary policy to counteract deviations of inflation from target, including those relating to exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, under the effective lower bound, credible non-standard monetary policy actions result in greater ERPT to consumer prices. This paper recommends moving away from rule-of-thumb estimates and instead using structural models with sufficient feedback loops, taking into account the role of expectations and monetary policy reactions, to assess the impact of exchange rate changes when forecasting inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Eva Ortega & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Papers 2016, Banco de España.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:2016
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    7. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel, 2023. "Soft or strong: the art of monetary tightening," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03954545, HAL.
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    9. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Jaime Martinez-Martin & Eva Ortega, 2022. "Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 239-275, March.
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    12. Cristina ANGHELESCU, 2022. "Shock-dependent Exchange Rate Pass-through into Different Measures of Price Indices in the Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 88-104, October.
    13. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2023. "Nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through: The role of inflation expectations," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 86-101.
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    15. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Hutchinson, John & Motto, Roberto, 2022. "Rate forward guidance in an environment of large central bank balance sheets: a Eurosystem stock-taking assessment," Occasional Paper Series 290, European Central Bank.
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    17. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
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    20. Gomez, Ledys Llasmin Salazar & Torres, Soledad & Kiseľák, Jozef & Fuders, Felix & Ishimura, Naoyuki & Yoshizawa, Yasukazu & Stehlík, Milan, 2022. "Long memory estimation in a non-Gaussian bivariate process," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 420(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rates; import prices; consumer prices; inflation; pass-through; euro area; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

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