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Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Fracasso

    (UNITN - Università degli Studi di Trento = University of Trento)

  • Angelo Secchi

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Chiara Tomasi

    (UNITN - Università degli Studi di Trento = University of Trento)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature on firms' export pricing by assessing whether and to what extent firms take into account the expected future evolution of the exchange rates while setting their prices. Using French micro-level trade data, our empirical analysis reveals that by adjusting their export prices, firms partly absorb information about future exchange rate variations. The extent to which individual exporters absorb future exchange rate fluctuations is found to depend on their market power, in accordance with theoretical dynamic demand-side models encompassing mechanisms creating an inter-temporal relationship between current market shares and future profits. The analysis also shows that the strength of such expectation-related mechanism is considerably reduced with greater future exchange rate uncertainty, in line with an interpretation of pricing-to-market as an investment decision under uncertainty. In a comparative perspective our results are shown to drive asymmetric responses across destinations of aggregate bilateral export flows to expected exchange rate movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Fracasso & Angelo Secchi & Chiara Tomasi, 2022. "Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03673148, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-03673148
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2021.07.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Wenqian & Wei, Hao, 2025. "The impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the prices of imported products by Chinese firms," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 464-478.
    2. David Aboagye Danquah & Ibrahim Mohammed, 2025. "Enhancing intra-regional trade in sub-saharan Africa: an exploration of threshold effects and the intermediation role of FDI and tourism," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, January.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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