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Global Trade and the Dollar

Author

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  • Ms. Emine Boz
  • Ms. Gita Gopinath
  • Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Abstract

We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Emine Boz & Ms. Gita Gopinath & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2017. "Global Trade and the Dollar," IMF Working Papers 2017/239, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/239
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhe Chen & Junjie Hong & Xiaonan Sun, 2020. "Exchange rate risk and trade mode choice in processing trade: Evidence from Chinese data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 537-564, May.
    2. Matthieu Bussière & Guillaume Gaulier & Walter Steingress, 2020. "Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 25-78, February.
    3. Ozge Akinci & Albert Queraltó, 2018. "Exchange rate dynamics and monetary spillovers with imperfect financial markets," Staff Reports 849, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Georgios Georgiadis & Saskia Mösle, 2020. "Introducing dominant‐currency pricing in the ECB's global macroeconomic model," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 234-256, August.
    5. Jacob, Punnoose & Uusküla, Lenno, 2019. "Deep habits and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 67-89.
    6. Maryam Mirfatah & Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine, 2021. "Imperfect Exchange Rate Pass-through: Empirical Evidence and Monetary Policy Implications," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0321, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    7. Mayer, Thierry & Steingress, Walter, 2020. "Estimating the effect of exchange rate changes on total exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    8. Torsten Ehlers & Mathias Hoffmann & Alexander Raabe, 2020. "Non-US global banks and dollar (co-)dependence: how housing markets became internationally synchronized," BIS Working Papers 897, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Chen, Natalie & Chung, Wanyu & Novy, Dennis, 2018. "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 13085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Tosapol Apaitan & Pym Manopimoke & Nuwat Nookhwun & Jettawat Pattararangrong, 2021. "Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices in Thailand: Evidence from Micro Data," PIER Discussion Papers 167, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The fundamentals of safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. A. Berthou & E. Dhyne, 2018. "Exchange Rate Movements, Firm-Level Exports and Heterogeneity," Working papers 660, Banque de France.
    13. de Soyres, François & Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa & Pavlova, Elena, 2021. "Bought, sold and bought again: The impact of complex value chains on export elasticities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Longaric, Pablo Anaya & Rubaszek, Michał, 2021. "The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rate models," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 7.
    15. Aleksei Kiselev & Aleksandra Zhivaykina, 2019. "The role of global relative price changes in international comovement of inflation," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps53, Bank of Russia.
    16. Aleksandra Babii, 2019. "Exchange Rates Co-movement and International Trade," 2019 Meeting Papers 1150, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2018 - Weltwirtschaftliche Dynamik überschreitet ihren Höhepunkt [World economic momentum peaks]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 39, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. David Cook & Nikhil Patel, 2018. "Dollar invoicing, exchange rates and international trade," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The price, real and financial effects of exchange rates, volume 96, pages 108-121, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; software package; U.S. dollar; exchange rate; Bayesian semiparametrics; bilateral trade; dominant currency; exchange rate pass-through; hierarchical Bayes; panel data; trade elasticity; invoicing share; dollar pass-through; pass-through coefficient; log growth; price pass-through; Exchange rates; Currencies; Exchange rate adjustments; Import prices; Imports; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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