IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmvana/v116y2013icp456-472.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Posterior consistency in conditional distribution estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Pati, Debdeep
  • Dunson, David B.
  • Tokdar, Surya T.

Abstract

A wide variety of priors have been proposed for nonparametric Bayesian estimation of conditional distributions, and there is a clear need for theorems providing conditions on the prior for large support, as well as posterior consistency. Estimation of an uncountable collection of conditional distributions across different regions of the predictor space is a challenging problem, which differs in some important ways from density and mean regression estimation problems. Defining various topologies on the space of conditional distributions, we provide sufficient conditions for posterior consistency focusing on a broad class of priors formulated as predictor-dependent mixtures of Gaussian kernels. This theory is illustrated by showing that the conditions are satisfied for a class of generalized stick-breaking process mixtures in which the stick-breaking lengths are monotone, differentiable functions of a continuous stochastic process. We also provide a set of sufficient conditions for the case where stick-breaking lengths are predictor independent, such as those arising from a fixed Dirichlet process prior.

Suggested Citation

  • Pati, Debdeep & Dunson, David B. & Tokdar, Surya T., 2013. "Posterior consistency in conditional distribution estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 456-472.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:116:y:2013:i:c:p:456-472
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2013.01.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047259X13000122
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmva.2013.01.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts, 2008. "Retrospective Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for Dirichlet process hierarchical models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(1), pages 169-186.
    2. De Iorio, Maria & Muller, Peter & Rosner, Gary L. & MacEachern, Steven N., 2004. "An ANOVA Model for Dependent Random Measures," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 205-215, January.
    3. Wu, Yuefeng & Ghosal, Subhashis, 2010. "The L1-consistency of Dirichlet mixtures in multivariate Bayesian density estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(10), pages 2411-2419, November.
    4. Gelfand, Alan E. & Kottas, Athanasios & MacEachern, Steven N., 2005. "Bayesian Nonparametric Spatial Modeling With Dirichlet Process Mixing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1021-1035, September.
    5. David B. Dunson & Natesh Pillai & Ju‐Hyun Park, 2007. "Bayesian density regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 163-183, April.
    6. Chung, Yeonseung & Dunson, David B., 2009. "Nonparametric Bayes Conditional Distribution Modeling With Variable Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1646-1660.
    7. Fan, Jianqing & Yao, Qiwei & Tong, Howell, 1996. "Estimation of conditional densities and sensitivity measures in nonlinear dynamical systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6704, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2006. "Order-Based Dependent Dirichlet Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 179-194, March.
    9. Tang, Yongqiang & Ghosal, Subhashis, 2007. "A consistent nonparametric Bayesian procedure for estimating autoregressive conditional densities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4424-4437, May.
    10. David B. Dunson & Ju-Hyun Park, 2008. "Kernel stick-breaking processes," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(2), pages 307-323.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kawakami, Hajime, 2023. "Doob’s consistency of a non-Bayesian updating process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    2. Seongil Jo & Taeyoung Roh & Taeryon Choi, 2016. "Bayesian spectral analysis models for quantile regression with Dirichlet process mixtures," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 177-206, March.
    3. Laura Liu, 2018. "Density Forecasts in Panel Data Models : A Semiparametric Bayesian Perspective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Sara Wade & Stephen G. Walker & Sonia Petrone, 2014. "A Predictive Study of Dirichlet Process Mixture Models for Curve Fitting," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(3), pages 580-605, September.
    5. Ryo Kato & Takahiro Hoshino, 2018. "Semiparametric Bayes Instrumental Variable Estimation with Many Weak Instruments," Discussion Paper Series DP2018-14, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    6. Emine Boz & Gita Gopinath & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2017. "Global Trade and the Dollar," Working Paper 489661, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    7. Norets, Andriy, 2015. "Bayesian regression with nonparametric heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 409-419.
    8. Ryo Kato & Takahiro Hoshino, 2020. "Semiparametric Bayesian multiple imputation for regression models with missing mixed continuous–discrete covariates," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 72(3), pages 803-825, June.
    9. Boyuan Zhang, 2022. "Incorporating Prior Knowledge of Latent Group Structure in Panel Data Models," Papers 2211.16714, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    10. Pelenis, Justinas, 2014. "Bayesian regression with heteroscedastic error density and parametric mean function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 624-638.
    11. Laura Liu, 2017. "Density Forecasts in Panel Models: A semiparametric Bayesian Perspective," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-006, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Apr 2017.
    12. Jing Zhou & Anirban Bhattacharya & Amy H. Herring & David B. Dunson, 2015. "Bayesian Factorizations of Big Sparse Tensors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(512), pages 1562-1576, December.
    13. Zahra Barzegar & Firoozeh Rivaz, 2020. "A scalable Bayesian nonparametric model for large spatio-temporal data," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 153-173, March.
    14. Antonio Canale & Bruno Scarpa, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric location–scale–shape mixtures," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(1), pages 113-130, March.
    15. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 675-685, April.
    16. Antonio Pacifico, 2023. "Obesity and labour market outcomes in Italy: a dynamic panel data evidence with correlated random effects," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(4), pages 557-574, June.
    17. Yan Shang & David Dunson & Jing-Sheng Song, 2017. "Exploiting Big Data in Logistics Risk Assessment via Bayesian Nonparametrics," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(6), pages 1574-1588, December.
    18. I. Votsi & G. Gayraud & V. S. Barbu & N. Limnios, 2021. "Hypotheses testing and posterior concentration rates for semi-Markov processes," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 707-732, October.
    19. Barrientos, Andrés F. & Canale, Antonio, 2021. "A Bayesian goodness-of-fit test for regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    20. Ryo Kato & Takahiro Hoshino, 2018. "Semiparametric Bayes Multiple Imputation for Regression Models with Missing Mixed Continuous-Discrete Covariates," Discussion Paper Series DP2018-15, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    21. Debdeep Pati & David Dunson, 2014. "Bayesian nonparametric regression with varying residual density," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 66(1), pages 1-31, February.
    22. Andrés F. Barrientos & Alejandro Jara & Fernando A. Quintana, 2017. "Fully Nonparametric Regression for Bounded Data Using Dependent Bernstein Polynomials," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 806-825, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huang, Yifan & Meng, Shengwang, 2020. "A Bayesian nonparametric model and its application in insurance loss prediction," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 84-94.
    2. Debdeep Pati & David Dunson, 2014. "Bayesian nonparametric regression with varying residual density," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 66(1), pages 1-31, February.
    3. Gutiérrez, Luis & Mena, Ramsés H. & Ruggiero, Matteo, 2016. "A time dependent Bayesian nonparametric model for air quality analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 161-175.
    4. Norets, Andriy & Pelenis, Justinas, 2012. "Bayesian modeling of joint and conditional distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 332-346.
    5. Pelenis, Justinas, 2014. "Bayesian regression with heteroscedastic error density and parametric mean function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 624-638.
    6. Pelenis, Justinas, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Regression," Economics Series 285, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    7. Stefano Favaro & Antonio Lijoi & Igor Prünster, 2012. "On the stick–breaking representation of normalized inverse Gaussian priors," DEM Working Papers Series 008, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Fuentes-García, Ruth & Mena, Ramsés H. & Walker, Stephen G., 2009. "A nonparametric dependent process for Bayesian regression," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 1112-1119, April.
    9. Yeonseung Chung & David Dunson, 2011. "The local Dirichlet process," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 63(1), pages 59-80, February.
    10. Norets, Andriy, 2015. "Bayesian regression with nonparametric heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 409-419.
    11. Miller, Jeffrey W., 2019. "An elementary derivation of the Chinese restaurant process from Sethuraman’s stick-breaking process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 112-117.
    12. Igari, Ryosuke & Hoshino, Takahiro, 2018. "A Bayesian data combination approach for repeated durations under unobserved missing indicators: Application to interpurchase-timing in marketing," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 150-166.
    13. Michael L. Pennell & David B. Dunson, 2008. "Nonparametric Bayes Testing of Changes in a Response Distribution with an Ordinal Predictor," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-423, June.
    14. Hatjispyros, Spyridon J. & Nicoleris, Theodoros & Walker, Stephen G., 2016. "Random density functions with common atoms and pairwise dependence," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 236-249.
    15. Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos & Stephen G. Walker, 2016. "A Nonparametric Model for Stationary Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 126-142, January.
    16. Maria De Iorio & Wesley O. Johnson & Peter Müller & Gary L. Rosner, 2009. "Bayesian Nonparametric Nonproportional Hazards Survival Modeling," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 762-771, September.
    17. Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2011. "Stick-breaking autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 383-396, June.
    18. Mahdi Hosseinpouri & Majid Jafari Khaledi, 2019. "An area-specific stick breaking process for spatial data," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 199-221, February.
    19. Barrientos, Andrés F. & Canale, Antonio, 2021. "A Bayesian goodness-of-fit test for regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    20. repec:jss:jstsof:40:i05 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Hatjispyros, Spyridon J. & Merkatas, Christos & Nicoleris, Theodoros & Walker, Stephen G., 2018. "Dependent mixtures of geometric weights priors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-18.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:116:y:2013:i:c:p:456-472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622892/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.