Stick-breaking autoregressive processes
This paper considers the problem of defining a time-dependent nonparametric prior for use in Bayesian nonparametric modelling of time series. A recursive construction allows the definition of priors whose marginals have a general stick-breaking form. The processes with Poisson-Dirichlet and Dirichlet process marginals are investigated in some detail. We develop a general conditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for inference in the wide subclass of these models where the parameters of the marginal stick-breaking process are nondecreasing sequences. We derive a generalised Pólya urn scheme type representation of the Dirichlet process construction, which allows us to develop a marginal MCMC method for this case. We apply the proposed methods to financial data to develop a semi-parametric stochastic volatility model with a time-varying nonparametric returns distribution. Finally, we present two examples concerning the analysis of regional GDP and its growth.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- De Iorio, Maria & Muller, Peter & Rosner, Gary L. & MacEachern, Steven N., 2004. "An ANOVA Model for Dependent Random Measures," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 205-215, January.
- Jim E. Griffin & Mark F.J. Steel, 2002.
"Semiparametric Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Frontier Models,"
0209001, EconWPA, revised 18 Sep 2002.
- Griffin, J. E. & Steel, M. F. J., 2004. "Semiparametric Bayesian inference for stochastic frontier models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 121-152, November.
- Lancelot F. James & Antonio Lijoi & Igor Prünster, 2009. "Posterior Analysis for Normalized Random Measures with Independent Increments," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 36(1), pages 76-97.
- Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2008.
"Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
2008-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Jensen, Mark J. & Maheu, John M., 2010. "Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 306-316, August.
- Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2009. "Bayesian Semiparametric Stochastic Volatility Modeling," Working Paper Series 23_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Mark J Jensen & John M Maheu, 2008. "Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling," Working Papers tecipa-314, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Keisuke Hirano, 2002. "Semiparametric Bayesian Inference in Autoregressive Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 781-799, March.
- Geweke, John & Keane, Michael, 2007. "Smoothly mixing regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 252-290, May.
- David B. Dunson & Natesh Pillai & Ju-Hyun Park, 2007. "Bayesian density regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 163-183.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Hamilton, Barton H., 2002. "Semiparametric Bayes analysis of longitudinal data treatment models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 67-89, September.
- Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, P.E.Peter E., 2004. "Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with fat-tails and correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 185-212, September.
- Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2006. "Order-Based Dependent Dirichlet Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 179-194, March.
- Roberto Zelli & Maria Grazia Pittau, 2006. "Empirical evidence of income dynamics across EU regions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 605-628.
- Peter Müller & Fernando Quintana & Gary Rosner, 2004. "A method for combining inference across related nonparametric Bayesian models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(3), pages 735-749.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:162:y:2011:i:2:p:383-396. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.