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Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling

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  • Mark J. Jensen
  • John M. Maheu

Abstract

This paper extends the existing fully parametric Bayesian literature on stochastic volatility to allow for more general return distributions. Instead of specifying a particular distribution for the return innovation, we use nonparametric Bayesian methods to flexibly model the skewness and kurtosis of the distribution while continuing to model the dynamics of volatility with a parametric structure. Our semiparametric Bayesian approach provides a full characterization of parametric and distributional uncertainty. We present a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling approach to estimation with theoretical and computational issues for simulation from the posterior predictive distributions. The new model is assessed based on simulation evidence, an empirical example, and comparison to parametric models.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2008-15.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2008-15
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Keywords: Econometric models ; Stochastic analysis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
  • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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