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Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

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  • Natalie Chen
  • Wanyu Chung
  • Dennis Novy

Abstract

Using detailed firm-level transactions data for UK imports, we find that invoicing in a vehicle currency is pervasive, with more than half of transactions in our sample invoiced in neither sterling nor the exporter's currency. We then study the relationship between invoicing currency choices and the response of import prices to exchange rate changes. We find that for transactions invoiced in a vehicle currency, import prices are much more sensitive to changes in the vehicle currency than in the bilateral exchange rate. Pass-through therefore substantially increases once we account for vehicle currencies. Our results help to explain the higher-than-expected pass-through into import prices during the Great Recession and after the EU referendum. Finally, within a theoretical framework we conceptualize an omitted variable bias arising in estimating pass-through with only bilateral exchange rates under vehicle currency pricing. Overall, our results contribute to understanding the disconnect between exchange rates and prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalie Chen & Wanyu Chung & Dennis Novy, 2019. "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," CEP Discussion Papers dp1624, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1624
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2019. "Exchange Rates and Consumer Prices : Evidence from Brexit," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1234, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:cpr:ceprdp:14176 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Anatoli Colicev & Joris Hoste & Jozef Konings, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-through after a Large Depreciation," Working Papers 201902, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    4. Georgios Georgiadis & Ben Schumann, 2019. "Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from U.S. Dollar Appreciation," Globalization Institute Working Papers 368, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Georgiadis, Georgios & Mösle, Saskia, 2019. "Introducing dominant currency pricing in the ECB’s global macroeconomic model," Working Paper Series 2321, European Central Bank.
    6. Costa, Rui & Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen, 2019. "Trade and Worker Deskilling," CEPR Discussion Papers 13768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2019. "Exchange Rates and Consumer Prices : Evidence from Brexit," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1234, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2018. "Dominant currencies How firms choose currency invoicing and why it matters," Working Paper Research 353, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Khalil, Makram, 2019. "Global value chain participation and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 2327, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CPI; Dollar; Euro; exchange rate pass-through; inflation; invoicing; Sterling; UK; vehicle currency pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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