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Banking, Trade, and the making of a Dominant Currency

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Listed:
  • Gita Gopinath
  • Jeremy C. Stein

Abstract

We explore the interplay between trade invoicing patterns and the pricing of safe assets in different currencies. Our theory highlights the following points: 1) a currency’s role as a unit of account for invoicing decisions is complementary to its role as a safe store of value; 2) this complementarity can lead to the emergence of a single dominant currency in trade invoicing and global banking, even when multiple large candidate countries share similar economic fundamentals; 3) firms in emerging-market countries endogenously take on currency mismatches by borrowing in the dominant currency; 4) the expected return on dominant-currency safe assets is lower than that on similarly safe assets denominated in other currencies, thereby bestowing an “exorbitant privilege” on the dominant currency. The theory thus provides a unified explanation for why a dominant currency is so heavily used in both trade invoicing and in global finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Gita Gopinath & Jeremy C. Stein, 2018. "Banking, Trade, and the making of a Dominant Currency," NBER Working Papers 24485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24485
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbone Gonzalez, Rodrigo & Khametshin, Dmitry & Peydró, José Luis & Polo, Andrea, 2018. "Hedger of Last Resort: Evidence from Brazilian FX Interventions, Local Credit and Global Financial Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 12817, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2020. "Currency composition of foreign exchange reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Alessandro Rebucci & Chang Ma, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," NBER Working Papers 26558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Matteo Maggiori & Brent Neiman & Jesse Schreger, 2019. "The Rise of the Dollar and Fall of the Euro as International Currencies," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 521-526, May.
    5. Chen, Natalie & Chung, Wanyu & Novy, Dennis, 2018. "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 13085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Charles W. Calomiris & Harry Mamaysky, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes," NBER Working Papers 25714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2019. "Dominant-currency pricing and the global output spillovers from US dollar appreciation," Working Paper Series 2308, European Central Bank.
    8. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2020. "Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 27786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Machiko Narita & Ratna Sahay, 2020. "US or Domestic Monetary Policy: Which Matters More for Financial Stability?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 35-65, March.
    10. Bryan Hardy & Felipe Saffie, 2019. "From carry trades to trade credit: financial intermediation by non-financial corporations," BIS Working Papers 773, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Samer Shousha, 2019. "The Dollar and Emerging Market Economies: Financial Vulnerabilities Meet the International Trade System," International Finance Discussion Papers 1258, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey & Maxime Sauzet, 2019. "The International Monetary and Financial System," NBER Working Papers 25782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Fischer, Andreas M & Yesin, Pinar, 2019. "Foreign currency loan conversions and currency mismatches," CEPR Discussion Papers 13923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Vania Stavrakeva & Jenny Tang, 2018. "The dollar during the global recession: US monetary policy and the exorbitant duty," Working Papers 18-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    15. Abbassi, Puriya & Bräuning, Falk, 2018. "The pricing of FX forward contracts: Micro evidence from banks' dollar hedging," Discussion Papers 42/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2019. "US Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 14053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Barry Eichengreen, 2019. "Two Views of the International Monetary System," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 54(4), pages 233-236, July.
    18. Liu, Tao & Lu, Dong & Woo, Wing Thye, 2019. "Trade, finance and international currency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 374-413.
    19. Itai Agur & Anil Ari & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2019. "Designing Central Bank Digital Currencies," IMF Working Papers 19/252, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Harold James & Jean-Pierre Landau, 2019. "The Digitalization of Money," NBER Working Papers 26300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Camila Casas & Sergii Meleshchuk & Yannick Timmer, 2020. "The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 1111, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    22. Douglas W. Diamond & Yunzhi Hu & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2020. "The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and the Implications for Multilateralism," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 4-34, March.
    23. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2019. "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 26297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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