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Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics

Author

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  • Varela, Liliana
  • Salomao, Juliana

Abstract

This paper develops a heterogeneous firm-dynamics model to jointly study firms' currency debt composition and investment choices. In our model, foreign currency borrowing arises from a dynamic trade-off between exposure to currency risk and growth. The model endogenously generates selection of productive firms into foreign currency borrowing. Among them, firms with high marginal product of capital use foreign loans more intensively. We assess econometrically the model's predicted pattern of foreign currency borrowing using firm-level census data from the deregulation of these loans in Hungary, calibrate the model and quantify the aggregate impact of this financing. Our counterfactual exercises show that understanding the characteristics of firms borrowing in foreign currency is critical to assess the aggregate consequences of this financing.

Suggested Citation

  • Varela, Liliana & Salomao, Juliana, 2018. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 12654, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12654
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    9. Ahnert, Toni & Forbes, Kristin & Friedrich, Christian & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2021. "Macroprudential FX regulations: Shifting the snowbanks of FX vulnerability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 145-174.
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    11. Florez-Orrego, Sergio & Maggiori, Matteo & Schreger, Jesse & Sun, Ziwen & Tinda, Serdil, 2023. "Global Capital Allocation," SocArXiv 5s6n3, Center for Open Science.
    12. Qiu, Yancheng, 2024. "Monetary policy spillovers through debt currencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    13. Egemen Eren & Semyon Malamud, 2018. "Dominant Currency Debt," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 18-55, Swiss Finance Institute.
    14. Bryan Hardy & Felipe Saffie, 2019. "From carry trades to trade credit: financial intermediation by non-financial corporations," BIS Working Papers 773, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Uroš Herman & Tobias Krahnke, 2022. "Determinants and Effects of Countries’ External Capital Structure: A Firm-Level Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2022/038, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Minsuk Kim, 2019. "Financial Development, Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Debt Dollarization: A Firm-Level Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2019/168, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Chen, Su & Yin, Lu, 2022. "Why do firms issue U.S. dollar bond abroad? Evidence from Chinese non-financial listed corporations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    18. Sérgio Leão & Rafael Schiozer & Raquel F. Oliveira & Gustavo Araujo, 2022. "Lending Relationships and Currency Hedging," Working Papers Series 565, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Omar Barbiero, 2021. "The Valuation Effects of Trade," Working Papers 21-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    20. Nick Sander, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity Inflows," Staff Working Papers 23-31, Bank of Canada.
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    23. Rodnyansky, A., 2018. "(Un)Competitive Devaluations and Firm Dynamics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1888, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm dynamics; Foreign currency debt; Currency mismatch; Uncovered interest rate parity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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