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The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation, and Productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Alfaro
  • Alejandro Cuñat
  • Harald Fadinger
  • Yanping Liu

Abstract

We build a dynamic heterogeneous-firm model in which real depreciations raise export demand and the cost of importing intermediates, and also affect borrowing constraints and the profitability of engaging in research and development (R&D). A number of stylized facts on manufacturing firms for a large set of countries discipline our estimation: Firms in emerging East Asia are very export oriented and rely little on imported intermediates, whereas the opposite holds for Latin America and Eastern Europe; firms from industrialized countries export as much as they import. Exporters experience an increase in cash flow, R&D, and productivity growth in response to real exchange rate (RER) depreciations; importers experience the opposite outcomes. In counterfactual simulations of temporary RER movements, the effects on innovation and productivity growth are heterogeneous across regions, sizeable and persistent. In emerging Asia, real depreciations are associated with higher probabilities to engage in R&D, faster growth of average firm-level productivity and cash flow, and higher export entry rates; we find negative average effects on these outcomes for firms in other emerging economies, and no significant average effects for firms in industrialized economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alfaro & Alejandro Cuñat & Harald Fadinger & Yanping Liu, 2023. "The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation, and Productivity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 637-689.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:21:y:2023:i:2:p:637-689.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvac058
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    Cited by:

    1. Salimeh Abedini Birang & Rebecca Neumann & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2025. "Exchange rates and investment: comparing the effects of export intensity and import competition," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1-30, May.
    2. Benguria, Felipe & Matsumoto, Hidehiko & Saffie, Felipe, 2022. "Productivity and trade dynamics in sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Alejandro Riaño & Fabrice Defever, 2017. "Twin Peaks," 2017 Meeting Papers 454, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Arni, Patrick & Egger, Peter & Erhardt, Katharina & Gubler, Matthias & Sauré, Philip, 2024. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Trade Shocks on Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 16895, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Magud, Nicolas E. & Pienknagura, Samuel, 2024. "The return of expansionary austerity: Firms' investment response to fiscal adjustments in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Ansgar Belke & Ulrich Volz, 2020. "The Yen Exchange Rate and the Hollowing Out of the Japanese Industry," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 371-406, April.
    7. Juliana Salomao & Liliana Varela, 2022. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 481-514.
    8. Teresiński, Jan, 2019. "Total factor productivity and the terms of trade," IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers 6/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F - International Economics
    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth

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