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Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Salomao, Juliana

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Varela, Liliana

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

This paper develops a firm-dynamics model with endogenous currency debt composition to study financing and investment decisions in developing economies. In our model, foreign currency borrowing arises from a trade-off between exposure to currency risk and growth. There is cross-sectional heterogeneity in these decisions in two dimensions. First, there is selection into foreign currency borrowing, as only productive firms employ it. Second, there is heterogeneity in firms’ share of foreign currency loans, driven by their potential growth. We assess econometrically the pattern of foreign currency borrowing using firm-level census data on Hungary, calibrate the model and quantify its aggregate impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Salomao, Juliana & Varela, Liliana, 2018. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 364, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:364
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    6. Bernabe Lopez‐Martin, 2022. "Firm Export Dynamics And The Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Exploration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1137-1163, August.
    7. Egemen Eren & Semyon Malamud & Haonan Zhou, 2023. "Signaling with debt currency choice," BIS Working Papers 1067, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Currency volatility and global technological innovation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Ahnert, Toni & Forbes, Kristin & Friedrich, Christian & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2021. "Macroprudential FX regulations: Shifting the snowbanks of FX vulnerability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 145-174.
    10. Hardy, Bryan, 2023. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks, and real outcomes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Florez-Orrego, Sergio & Maggiori, Matteo & Schreger, Jesse & Sun, Ziwen & Tinda, Serdil, 2023. "Global Capital Allocation," SocArXiv 5s6n3, Center for Open Science.
    12. Egemen Eren & Semyon Malamud, 2018. "Dominant Currency Debt," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 18-55, Swiss Finance Institute.
    13. Bryan Hardy & Felipe Saffie, 2019. "From carry trades to trade credit: financial intermediation by non-financial corporations," BIS Working Papers 773, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Uroš Herman & Tobias Krahnke, 2022. "Determinants and Effects of Countries’ External Capital Structure: A Firm-Level Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2022/038, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Minsuk Kim, 2019. "Financial Development, Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Debt Dollarization: A Firm-Level Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2019/168, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Chen, Su & Yin, Lu, 2022. "Why do firms issue U.S. dollar bond abroad? Evidence from Chinese non-financial listed corporations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    17. Sérgio Leão & Rafael Schiozer & Raquel F. Oliveira & Gustavo Araujo, 2022. "Lending Relationships and Currency Hedging," Working Papers Series 565, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    18. Omar Barbiero, 2021. "The Valuation Effects of Trade," Working Papers 21-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    19. Nick Sander, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity Inflows," Staff Working Papers 23-31, Bank of Canada.
    20. Felipe Benguria & Felipe Saffie & Sergio Urzúa, 2018. "The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles," NBER Working Papers 24560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2019. "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 26297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Rodnyansky, A., 2018. "(Un)Competitive Devaluations and Firm Dynamics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1888, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    Keywords

    firm dynamics; foreign currency debt; currency mismatch; uncovered interest rate parity. JEL Classification: F30; F34; F36;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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