IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/12973.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Currencies and Capital Allocation

Author

Listed:
  • Maggiori, Matteo
  • Neiman, Brent
  • Schreger, Jesse

Abstract

We establish that global portfolios are driven by an often neglected aspect: the currency of denomination of assets. Using a dataset of $27 trillion in security-level investment positions, we demonstrate that investor holdings are biased toward their own currencies to such an extent that each country holds the bulk of all debt securities denominated in their own currency, even those issued by foreign borrowers in developed countries. Surprisingly, currency is such a strong predictor of the nationality of a security's holder that the nationality of the issuer - to date, the most powerful predictor in a voluminous literature on cross-border portfolios - adds very little explanatory power. While large firms issue bonds in foreign currency and borrow from foreigners, the vast majority of firms issue only in local currency and do not directly access foreign capital. These patterns hold broadly across countries with the exception of countries, like the United States, that issue an international currency. The global willingness to hold the US dollar means that even smaller US firms that borrow exclusively in dollars have little difficulty borrowing from abroad. Global portfolios shifted sharply away from the euro and toward the dollar starting with the 2008 financial crisis, further cementing the dollar's international role and potentially amplifying the benefit that its status brings to the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Maggiori, Matteo & Neiman, Brent & Schreger, Jesse, 2018. "International Currencies and Capital Allocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12973
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=12973
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas & Straub, Roland, 2016. "Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 85-104.
    2. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "On the international transmission of shocks: Micro-evidence from mutual fund portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 357-374.
    3. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    4. Gozzi, Juan Carlos & Levine, Ross & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2010. "Patterns of international capital raisings," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 45-57, January.
    5. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June.
    6. Jeremy C. Stein, 2012. "Monetary Policy as Financial Stability Regulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 57-95.
    7. Boermans, Martijn A. & Vermeulen, Robert, 2016. "Newton meets Van Leeuwenhoek: Identifying international investors’ common currency preferences," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 62-65.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Karine Serfaty‐De Medeiros & Luis M. Viceira, 2010. "Global Currency Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 87-121, February.
    9. Eric van Wincoop & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Is Home Bias in Assets Related to Home Bias in Goods?," NBER Working Papers 12728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Galina Hale & Maurice Obstfeld, 2016. "The Euro And The Geography Of International Debt Flows," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 115-144, February.
    11. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 126-133, May.
    12. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    13. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    14. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
    15. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
    16. Pablo Ottonello & Diego J. Perez, 2019. "The Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 174-208, July.
    17. Dmitry Mukhin, 2018. "An Equilibrium Model of the International Price System," 2018 Meeting Papers 89, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu & Yusuf Soner Baskaya, 2022. "International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles [Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(2), pages 733-773.
    19. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    20. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    21. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    22. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    23. Matteo Maggiori, 2017. "Financial Intermediation, International Risk Sharing, and Reserve Currencies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3038-3071, October.
    24. Gabriel Zucman, 2013. "The Missing Wealth of Nations: Are Europe and the U.S. net Debtors or net Creditors?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1321-1364.
    25. Stefan Nagel, 2016. "The Liquidity Premium of Near-Money Assets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1927-1971.
    26. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
    27. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
    28. Diamond, Douglas W, 1991. "Monitoring and Reputation: The Choice between Bank Loans and Directly Placed Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 689-721, August.
    29. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 443-473.
    30. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "Cross-Border Returns Differentials," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1495-1530.
    31. Tarek A. Hassan, 2013. "Country Size, Currency Unions, and International Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2269-2308, December.
    32. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2001. "The NBER Patent Citation Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools," NBER Working Papers 8498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
    34. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2008. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 347-368, May.
    35. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 851-878.
    36. Wenxin Du & Alexander Tepper & Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 915-957, June.
    37. Kiminori Matsuyama & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Akihiko Matsui, 1993. "Toward a Theory of International Currency," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 283-307.
    38. Bolton, Patrick & Scharfstein, David S, 1996. "Optimal Debt Structure and the Number of Creditors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 1-25, February.
    39. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    40. Tatiana Didier & Roberto Rigobon & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Unexploited Gains From International Diversification: Patterns Of Portfolio Holdings Around The World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1562-1583, December.
    41. Ryan Chahrour & Rosen Valchev, 2017. "International Medium of Exchange: Privilege and Duty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 934, Boston College Department of Economics.
    42. Khorana, Ajay & Servaes, Henri & Tufano, Peter, 2005. "Explaining the size of the mutual fund industry around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 145-185, October.
    43. French, Kenneth R & Poterba, James M, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 222-226, May.
    44. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2011. "Country Portfolios In Open Economy Macro‐Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 337-369, April.
    45. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
    46. Adams, Jonathan J. & Barrett, Philip, 2021. "Why are countries’ asset portfolios exposed to nominal exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    47. Fidora, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2007. "Home bias in global bond and equity markets: The role of real exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 631-655, June.
    48. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August.
    49. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Wenxin Du & Carolin E. Pflueger & Jesse Schreger, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 22592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Fiorella De Fiore & Harald Uhlig, 2011. "Bank Finance versus Bond Finance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1399-1421, October.
    52. Alan Spearot, 2016. "Unpacking the Long-Run Effects of Tariff Shocks: New Structural Implications from Firm Heterogeneity Models," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 128-167, May.
    53. Liliana Varela & Juliana Salomao, 2016. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 2016-278-05, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    54. Robert Ready & Mariano Croce & Federico Gavazzoni & Riccardo Colacito, 2016. "Currency Risk Factors in a Recursive Multi-Country Economy," 2016 Meeting Papers 297, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    55. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2011. "Risks for the Long Run and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 153-181.
    56. Gozzi, Juan Carlos & Levine, Ross & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2015. "How firms use corporate bond markets under financial globalization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 532-551.
    57. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    58. Charles Engel, 2016. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 436-474, February.
    59. Mauricio Larrain & Sebastian Stumpner, 2017. "Capital Account Liberalization and Aggregate Productivity: The Role of Firm Capital Allocation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1825-1858, August.
    60. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. "International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-984, June.
    61. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    62. Kalok Chan & Vicentiu Covrig & Lilian Ng, 2005. "What Determines the Domestic Bias and Foreign Bias? Evidence from Mutual Fund Equity Allocations Worldwide," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1495-1534, June.
    63. Fiorella De Fiore & Harald Uhlig, 2011. "Bank Finance versus Bond Finance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1399-1421, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    4. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2016. "When bonds matter: Home bias in goods and assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 119-137.
    6. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert & Martin, Philippe, 2010. "International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 100-112, January.
    7. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey & Maxime Sauzet, 2019. "The International Monetary and Financial System," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 859-893, August.
    8. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    9. Bianchi, Javier & Bigio, Saki & Engel, Charles M, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 16712, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2018. "An intermediation-based model of exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 743, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2016. "When bonds matter: Home bias in goods and assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 119-137.
    12. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2016. "When bonds matter: Home bias in goods and assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 119-137.
    13. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2016. "When bonds matter: Home bias in goods and assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 119-137.
    14. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    15. Ghironi, Fabio & Lee, Jaewoo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2015. "The valuation channel of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 86-114.
    16. Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2009. "Do trade costs in goods market lead to home bias in equities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 86-100, February.
    17. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Robert Kollmann & Philippe Martin, 2009. "International Portfolios with Supply, Demand, and Redistributive Shocks," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 231-263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Eren, Egemen & Malamud, Semyon, 2022. "Dominant currency debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 571-589.
    19. Bhamra, Harjoat S. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2014. "A dynamic equilibrium model of imperfectly integrated financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 490-542.
    20. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Flows; Exorbitant Privilege; Home Bias; reserve currencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12973. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.