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Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Bianchi
  • Saki Bigio
  • Charles Engel

Abstract

We develop a theory of exchange rate fluctuations arising from financial institutions’ demand for dollar liquid assets. Financial flows are unpredictable and may leave banks “scrambling for dollars.” Because of settlement frictions in interbank markets, a precautionary demand for dollar reserves emerges and gives rise to an endogenous convenience yield on the dollar. We show that an increase in the dollar funding risk leads to a rise in the convenience yield and an appreciation of the dollar, as banks scramble for dollars. We present empirical evidence on the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations for the G10 currencies and the quantity of dollar liquidity, which is consistent with the theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 29457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29457
    Note: EFG IFM ME
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    Cited by:

    1. Ron Alquist & Karlye Dilts Stedman & R. Jay Kahn, 2022. "Foreign Reserve Management and U.S. Money Market Liquidity: A Cost of Exorbitant Privilege," Research Working Paper RWP 22-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    2. Carol C. Bertaut & Stephanie E. Curcuru & Ester Faia & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2024. "New Evidence on the US Excess Return on Foreign Portfolios," IMF Working Papers 2024/241, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Chaumont, Gaston & Gordon, Grey & Sultanum, Bruno & Tobin, Elliot, 2024. "Sovereign debt and credit default swaps," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Zhengyang Jiang, 2024. "Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View," CESifo Working Paper Series 11279, CESifo.
    5. Bazán-Palomino, Walter & Ortiz, Marco & Terrones, Marco E. & Winkelried, Diego, 2025. "The role of US bank liquidity and regulations in Covered Interest Parity deviations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Kim, Duhyeong, 2023. "International effects of quantitative easing and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Santiago Forero Alvarado, 2023. "Manejo de liquidez bancaria, prima de liquidez y pol√≠tica monetaria," Documentos CEDE 20305, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2023. "Collateral Advantage: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Global Cycles," NBER Working Papers 31164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Javier Bianchi, 2022. "The Research Agenda: Javier Bianchi on Financial Crises and Prudential Policies," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 23(1), April.
    11. Saleem Bahaj & Ricardo Reis, 2022. "The Economics of Liquidity Lines Between Central Banks," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 57-74, November.
    12. Ostry, D. A., 2023. "Tails of Foreign Exchange-at-Risk (FEaR)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2343, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. de Boer, Jantke & Eichler, Stefan, 2024. "FX dealer constraints and external imbalances," Ruhr Economic Papers 1132, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2022. "Sanctions and the Exchange Rate," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 148-151, May.
    15. Davis, J. Scott & Zlate, Andrei, 2023. "The global financial cycle and capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    16. Magnolia Miriam Sosa Castro & Maria Alejandra Cabello Rosales & Edgar Ortiz Calisto, 2025. "Impactos de los Anuncios de Política Monetaria y del Vencimiento de Derivados sobre la Volatilidad del Tipo de Cambio del Peso Mexicano: Modelos GARCH y OCHL Range," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 103, pages 47-75, January.
    17. Müller, Gernot & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 18427, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Tao Liu & Dong Lu & Liang Wang, 2025. "Hegemony or Harmony? A Unified Framework for the International Monetary System," Working Papers 202504, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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