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Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates

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  • Javier Bianchi
  • Saki Bigio
  • Charles Engel

Abstract

We develop a theory of exchange rate fluctuations arising from financial institutions’ demand for dollar liquid assets. Financial flows are unpredictable and may leave banks “scrambling for dollars.” Because of settlement frictions in interbank markets, a precautionary demand for dollar reserves emerges and gives rise to an endogenous convenience yield on the dollar. We show that an increase in the dollar funding risk leads to a rise in the convenience yield and an appreciation of the dollar, as banks scramble for dollars. We present empirical evidence on the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations for the G10 currencies and the quantity of dollar liquidity, which is consistent with the theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 29457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29457
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    1. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Global risk and the dollar," Working Paper Series 2628, European Central Bank.

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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