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New Evidence on the US Excess Return on Foreign Portfolios

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Abstract

We provide new estimates of the return on US external claims and liabilities using confidential, high-quality, security-level data. The excess return is positive on average, since claims are tilted toward higher-return equities. The excess return is large and positive in normal times but large and negative during global crises, reflecting the global insurance role of the US external balance sheet. Controlling for issuer's nationality, we find that US investors have a larger exposure to equity issued by Asia-headquartered corporations than reported in the aggregate statistics. Finally, equity portfolios are concentrated in 'superstar' firms, but for US liabilities foreign holdings are less concentrated than the overall market.

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  • Carol C. Bertaut & Stephanie E. Curcuru & Ester Faia & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2024. "New Evidence on the US Excess Return on Foreign Portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 1398, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1398
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2024.1398
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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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