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Tax Policy and Investment in a Global Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
  • Matthew Smith
  • Owen M. Zidar
  • Eric Zwick

Abstract

We evaluate the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Combining reduced-form estimates from tax data with a global investment model, we estimate responses, identify parameters, and conduct counterfactuals. Domestic investment of firms with the mean tax change increases 20% versus a no-change baseline. Due to novel foreign incentives, foreign capital of U.S. multinationals rises substantially. These incentives also boost domestic investment, indicating complementarity between domestic and foreign capital. In the model, the long-run effect on domestic capital in general equilibrium is 7% and the tax revenue feedback from growth offsets only 2p.p. of the direct cost of 41% of pre-TCJA corporate revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Matthew Smith & Owen M. Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2024. "Tax Policy and Investment in a Global Economy," NBER Working Papers 32180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32180
    Note: CF EFG IFM ITI PE
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    Cited by:

    1. Lundberg, Jacob & Massenz, Gabriella, 2025. "Local Corporate Taxation and Business Activity," Working Paper Series 1531, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    2. Carol C. Bertaut & Stephanie E. Curcuru & Ester Faia & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2024. "New Evidence on the US Excess Return on Foreign Portfolios," IMF Working Papers 2024/241, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Gallé, Johannes & Overbeck, Daniel & Riedel, Nadine & Seidel, Tobias, 2024. "Place-based policies, structural change and female labor: Evidence from India’s Special Economic Zones," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    4. Katarzyna A. Bilicka & Michael P. Devereux & İrem Güçeri, 2024. "Tax Policy, Investment and Profit Shifting," NBER Working Papers 33132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Castro Nofal, Bastian & Díaz, Juan D. & Gutiérrez Cubillos, Pablo & Hansen, Erwin, 2024. "Stock returns and tax progressivity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    6. Douglas Elmendorf & R. Glenn Hubbard & Zachary Liscow, 2025. "Policies to Reduce Federal Budget Deficits by Increasing Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, volume 5, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ana Maria Santacreu & Ashley Stewart, 2025. "The Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on U.S. Multinationals' Intangible Assets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 107(4), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Fan, Chenguang & Bae, Seongho & Liu, Yu, 2025. "Taxation and corporate investment efficiency in common prosperity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. Radek Šauer, 2022. "Corporate Taxation in Open Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 9942, CESifo.
    10. Shcherban Tetiana & Bretsko Iryna & Korolovych Oksana & Shtykh Iryna & Havrylets Olesya, 2025. "Psychology of Risk in Economic Decision-Making Under Martial Law: Evidence from Ukraine," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 31(3), pages 337-363.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

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