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The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates

  • Philip R. Lane

    (Trinity College Dublin and CEPR)

  • Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

    (International Monetary Fund and CEPR)

The relationship between international payments and the real exchange rate¡Xthe "transfer problem"- is one of the classic questions in international economics. In this paper we use cross-country data on real exchange rates and a newly constructed data set on countries' net external positions to shed new light on this old question. We present a simple theoretical framework that leads to empirically testable implications for the long-run co-movements of real exchange rates, net foreign assets, relative GDP and the terms of trade, and cross-country and time-series evidence on the subject. We show that, on average, countries with net external liabilities have more depreciated real exchange rates, and that the main channel of transmission seems to work through the relative price of nontraded goods, rather than through the relative price of traded goods across countries.

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Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 062000.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:062000
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  1. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
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  5. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
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  8. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
  9. Lane, P, 1999. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Survey," Trinity Economics Papers 993, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  10. Chihwa Kao & Min-Hsien Chiang, 1999. "On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 2, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
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  14. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1996. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," NBER Working Papers 5650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Masson, Paul R. & Kremers, Jeroen & Horne, Jocelyn, 1994. "Net foreign assets and international adjustment: The United States, Japan and Germany," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-40, February.
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  18. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
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