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On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data

  • Chihwa Kao

    (Syracuse University)

  • Min-Hsien Chiang

    (Syracuse University)

In this paper, we study the asymptotic distributions for least-squares (OLS), fully modified (FM), and dynamic OLS\ (DOLS) estimators in cointegrated regression models in panel data. We show that the OLS, FM, and DOLS estimators are all asymptotically normally distributed. However, the asymptotic distribution of the OLS estimator is shown to have a non-zero mean. Monte Carlo results examine the sampling behavior of the proposed estimators and show that (1) the OLS estimator has a non-negligible bias in finite samples, (2) the FM estimator does not improve over the OLS estimator in general, and (3) the DOLS out-performs both the OLS and FM estimators.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9703001.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 15 Mar 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9703001
Note: Type of Document - Tex (DVI); prepared on IBM PC ; to print on HP/PostScrip; pages: 24 ; figures: 0
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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Phillips, Peter C B & Loretan, Mico, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 407-36, May.
  4. Park, J.Y. & Ogaki, M., 1991. "Seemingly Unrelated Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," RCER Working Papers 280, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  6. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:106:y:1991:i:2:p:327-68 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84.
  8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  9. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
  10. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Phillips, P C B & Durlauf, S N, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 473-95, August.
  13. Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo, 1989. "Asymptotics for Linear Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 932, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Danny Quah, 1993. "Exploiting Cross Section Variation for Unit Root Inference in Dynamic Data," FMG Discussion Papers dp171, Financial Markets Group.
  15. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-78, September.
  16. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
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