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Panel Cointegration with Global Stochastic Trends

This paper studies estimation of panel cointegration models with cross-sectional dependence generated by unobserved global stochastic trends. The standard least squares estimator is, in general, inconsistent owing to the spuriousness induced by the unobservabla I(1) trends. We propose two iterative procedures that jointly estimate the slope parameters and the stochastic trends. The resulting estimators are referred to respectively as CupBC (continuously updated and bias-corrected) and the CupFM (continuously updated and fully modified) estimators. We establish their consistency and derive their limiting distributions. Both are asymptotically unbiased and asymptotically normal and permit inference to be conducted using standard test statistics. The estimates are also valid when there are mixed stationary and non-stationary factors, as well as when the factors are all stationary.

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Paper provided by Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University in its series Center for Policy Research Working Papers with number 90.

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Length: 86 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:90
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  1. Pesaran, M.H. & Yamagata. T., 2005. "Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0513, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  3. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2006. "A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the US," IZA Discussion Papers 2338, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Breitung, J. & Pesaran, M.H., 2005. "Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0535, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. G. Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran & T. Yamagata, 2010. "Panels with nonstationary multifactor error structures," Post-Print peer-00768190, HAL.
  9. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  11. Chang, Yoosoon, 2002. "Nonlinear IV unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 261-292, October.
  12. Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2000. "GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0913, Econometric Society.
  13. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
  14. Donald W.K. Andrews, 2003. "Cross-section Regression with Common Shocks," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1428, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Breitung, J rg & Das, Samarjit, 2008. "Testing For Unit Roots In Panels With A Factor Structure," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 88-108, February.
  16. Hyungsik R. Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity Using Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1224, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  17. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  18. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
  19. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  20. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, 06.
  21. Chang, Yoosoon, 2004. "Bootstrap unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 263-293, June.
  22. Gengenbach Christian & Palm Franz C. & Urbain Jean-Pierre, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Testing in the Presence of Common Factors," Research Memorandum 050, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  23. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  24. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  25. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-78, September.
  26. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Unit Root Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1104, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  28. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September.
  29. Peter C.B. Phillips & Steven N. Durlauf, 1985. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 768, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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