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A Fair Exchange? Theory and Practice of Calculating Equilibrium Exchange Rates

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  • Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
  • Mr. Hamid Faruqee
  • Mr. Jaewoo Lee

Abstract

We develop a theory-based model of equilibrium exchange rates incorporating factors that have been found to matter empirically. The model provides insights into how variables should be measured and what are appropriate cross-country restrictions. We estimate this model using a panel of 12 industrial countries. The model fits the data relatively well, implying relatively fast adjustment to equilibrium and outperforming a random walk at longer horizons. Furthermore, we find that the rate of adjustment depends on the distance from equilibrium, suggesting that part of the explanation for slow adjustment is inaccurate measures of equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Mr. Jaewoo Lee, 2005. "A Fair Exchange? Theory and Practice of Calculating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 2005/229, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/229
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Hsiao Chink Tang, 2014. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra-Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 335-352, February.
    4. Zhang, Zhibai & Chen, Langnan, 2014. "A new assessment of the Chinese RMB exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 113-122.
    5. Leandro Medina & Jordi Prat & Mr. Alun H. Thomas, 2010. "Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2010/043, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Caputo, Rodrigo, 2015. "Persistent real misalignments and the role of the exchange rate regime," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 112-116.
    7. Montecino, Juan Antonio, 2018. "Capital controls and the real exchange rate: Do controls promote disequilibria?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 80-95.
    8. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Amina Lahrèche‐Révil & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Is Asia Responsible For Exchange Rate Misalignments Within The G20?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 46-61, February.
    9. Thorbecke, Willem, 2008. "The effect of exchange rate volatility on fragmentation in East Asia: Evidence from the electronics industry," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 535-544, December.
    10. Guzin BAYAR & Selman TOKPUNAR, 2013. "Turk Lirasi Reel Kuru Denge Degerinde Mi?," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 13(4), pages 405-426.
    11. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Martin Mühleisen, 2006. "Energy, the Exchange Rate, and the Economy: Macroeconomic Benefits of Canada’s Oil Sands Production," IMF Working Papers 2006/070, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates," FIW Working Paper series 065, FIW.
    13. Montiel, Peter J., 2007. "Equilibrium real exchange rates, misalignment and competitiveness in the Southern Cone," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 62, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    14. Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2011. "Intra-Asia Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra-Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 90, Asian Development Bank.
    15. Rodrigo Caputo & Miguel Fuentes, 2012. "Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate: a Cross - Country Perspective," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 655, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Rodrigo Caputo & Miguel Fuentes, 2013. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Fiscal Policy from a Cross-Country Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 4, pages 93-116, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Mr. Julian Di Giovanni & Mr. Rudolfs Bems & Jungjin Lee & Ms. Mitali Das & Ms. Filiz D Unsal & Marola Castillo & Jair Rodriguez & Mr. Mauricio Vargas & Mr. Luis Catão & Mr. Steven T Phillips & Mr. Luc, 2013. "The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology," IMF Working Papers 2013/272, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Marco Núñez N. & Rodrigo O. Valdés P., 2008. "Exchange Rate Analysis in Practice," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 61-91, April.

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