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Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra-Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods

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  • Hsiao Chink Tang

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="twec12095-abs-0001"> This paper examines the impact of intra-Asia exchange rate volatility on intra-Asia trade in primary goods, intermediate goods, equipment goods and consumption goods from 1980 to 2009. For Asia, the evidence shows that as intraregional exchange rate volatility increases, intraregional exports in these goods fall. This adverse impact is even more pronounced in the subregion of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+5 comprising ASEAN member countries plus the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei, China; and especially among intermediate and equipment exports. Again, the impact magnifies in an even smaller subgroup excluding the smaller ASEAN economies. These results underline the significant impact of exchange rate volatility on the region's production networks. For South Asia, however, exchange rate volatility appears to have a positive impact on exports. Still, caution is warranted given that South Asian economies trade relatively little with each other.

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  • Hsiao Chink Tang, 2014. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra-Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 335-352, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:37:y:2014:i:2:p:335-352
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pozo, Susan, 1992. "Conditional Exchange-Rate Volatility and the Volume of International Trade: Evidence from the Early 1900s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 325-329, May.
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    1. Willem Thorbecke, 2015. "Measuring the Competitiveness of China's Processed Exports," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(1), pages 78-100, January.
    2. Keddad, Benjamin, 2019. "How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-70.
    3. Willem THORBECKE, 2016. "Understanding the Flow of Electronic Parts and Components in East Asia," Discussion papers 16072, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Smallwood, Aaron D., 2019. "Analyzing exchange rate uncertainty and bilateral export growth in China: A multivariate GARCH-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 332-344.
    5. Willem Thorbecke, 2015. "Understanding Japan's Capital Goods Exports," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 536-549, December.
    6. Miaojie Yu, 2023. "Internationalisierung des RMB und Belt and Road Initiative," Springer Books, in: Handelskrieg und Handelsgespräche zwischen China und den USA, chapter 10, pages 157-173, Springer.
    7. Willem THORBECKE & Chen CHEN & Nimesh SALIKE, 2025. "The Diminishing Impact of Exchange Rates on China’s Exports," Discussion papers 25010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Thorbecke, Willem, 2015. "China–US trade: A global outlier," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 47-58.
    9. Tunç, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2016. "Does exchange rate volatility matter for international sales? Evidence from US firm level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 152-156.
    10. Cengiz Tunç & M. Nihat Solakoglu, 2025. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Firms’ Export Decisions: Evidence from Exporter Dynamics Database," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 651-677, April.
    11. Paul De Grauwe & Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu & Nagendra Shrestha & Shajuan Zhang, 2016. "Industry-specific exchange rate volatility and intermediate goods trade in Asia," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(1), pages 89-109, February.
    12. Fan Zhang & Miaojie Yu & Jiantuo Yu & Yang Jin, 2017. "The Effect of RMB Internationalization on Belt and Road Initiative: Evidence from Bilateral Swap Agreements," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2845-2857, December.
    13. Keddad, Benjamin & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2022. "The influence of the renminbi and its macroeconomic determinants: A new Chinese monetary order in Asia?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Kiyotaka SATO & Shajuan ZHANG, 2019. "Do Exchange Rates Matter in Global Value Chains?," Discussion papers 19059, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Khee Giap Tan & Luu Nguyen Trieu Duong & Hui Yin Chuah, 2019. "Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 873-901, October.
    16. Willem Thorbecke, 2017. "How Would a Slowdown in the People’s Republic of China Affect its Trading Partners?," ADBI Working Papers 634, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    17. Miaojie Yu, 2023. "Chinas Handelsentwicklung und die Gestaltung der Öffnungspolitik in den letzten vier Jahrzehnten," Springer Books, in: Handelskrieg und Handelsgespräche zwischen China und den USA, chapter 1, pages 3-22, Springer.
    18. Wang, Fan & Pan, Changchun & Wang, Weiqiang, 2023. "Impact of US monetary policy uncertainty on RMB exchange rate volatility:The role of international capital flows," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    19. Miaojie Yu, 2020. "China-US Trade War and Trade Talk," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-981-15-3785-1, December.

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