The Effects of Foreign Price Uncertainty on Australian Production and Trade
This article provides an empirical analysis of the impact of uncertain international prices on Australia's production sector and international trade. We model the movement of traded goods prices via a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model and embed this within an expected utility maximising model of the production sector. The empirical results are consistent with expected utility maximisation and the hypothesis of risk neutrality is soundly rejected. Estimates of the effects of changes in expected prices and volatility of traded goods prices upon production decisions and the return to capital are discussed. The conclusion is that price uncertainty matters for the Australian production sector. Copyright © 2009 The Economic Society of Australia.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 86 (2010)
Issue (Month): 273 (06)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 61 3 9497 4140
Fax: 61 3 9497 4140
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0013-0249
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0013-0249|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rulon D. Pope, 2003. "Agricultural Risk Analysis: Adequacy of Models, Data, and Issues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1249-1256.
- Gruen, David W R & Wilkinson, Jenny, 1994.
"Australia's Real Exchange Rate--Is It Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 204-19, June.
- David W.R. Gruen & Jenny Wilkinson, 1991. "Australia’s Real Exchange Rate – Is it Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9108, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- David M Kreps & Evan L Porteus, 1978.
"Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
625018000000000009, David K. Levine.
- Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
- Appelbaum, Elie & Kohli, Ulrich, 1998.
"Import-Price Uncertainty, Production Decisions, and Relative Factor Shares,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 345-60, August.
- Elie Appelbaum & Ulrich Kohli, 1997. "Import-Price Uncertainty, Production Decisions, and Relative Factor Shares," Working Papers 1997_4, York University, Department of Economics.
- Satyanarayan, Sudhakar, 1999. "Econometric tests of firm decision making under dual sources of uncertainty," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 315-325, July.
- Elie Appelbaum, 1997.
"Uncertainty and the measurement of productivity,"
1997_5, York University, Department of Economics.
- Elie Appelbaum, 1996.
"Import Price Uncertainty and the Distribution of Income,"
1996_10, York University, Department of Economics.
- Elie Appelbaum & Ulrich Kohli, 1997. "Import Price Uncertainty And The Distribution Of Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 620-630, November.
- Subal C. Kumbhakar, 2002. "Risk preference and productivity measurement under output price uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 461-472.
- Elie Appelbaum & Aman Ullah, 1997.
"Estimation Of Moments And Production Decisions Under Uncertainty,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 631-637, November.
- Elie Appelbaum & Aman Ullah, 1996. "Estimation of moments and production decisions under uncertainty," Working Papers 1996_9, York University, Department of Economics.
- Chavas, Jean-Paul & Holt, Matthew T, 1996. "Economic Behavior under Uncertainty: A Joint Analysis of Risk Preferences and Technology," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 329-35, May.
- Mckenzie, Michael D., 1998. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 21-38, January.
- Wells, Graeme & Evans, Lewis, 1985. "The Impact of Traded Goods Prices on the New Zealand Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(172), pages 421-35, March.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Wolak, Frank A & Kolstad, Charles D, 1991. "A Model of Homogeneous Input Demand under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 514-38, June.
- David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.), International Intergration of the Australian Economy Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Sandmo, Agnar, 1971. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 65-73, March.
- Appelbaum, Elie, 2006. "A framework for empirical applications of production theory without expected utility," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 290-302.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:86:y:2010:i:273:p:162-177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.