IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/agribz/v31y2015i2p188-197.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price Risk and Exporter Competition in China's Soybean Market

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Muhammad

Abstract

ABSTRACT An import allocation model is used to examine the effects of price risk (variance of prices) on exporter competition in China's soybean market. Price risk is an important determinant of China's soybean imports across sources (Argentina, Brazil, and the United States), even when accounting for other factors. Results indicate that Argentina is the only country affected by own‐price risk in the Chinese market; imports decline by 1.11% for every percentage increase price risk. The estimated risk premium for soybeans from Argentina is 0.44, indicating that if price risk increases by 1%, prices would have to fall by 0.44% for imports to remain unchanged. Price risk in Argentina has a positive effect on China's imports from the United States. Price risk in Brazil has a positive effect on imports from Argentina, but a negative effect on imports from the United States. [EconLit citations: D81, F14, Q11, Q17].

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Muhammad, 2015. "Price Risk and Exporter Competition in China's Soybean Market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 188-197, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:188-197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/agr.21393
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moawia Alghalith, 2005. "Input demand with cost uncertainty," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 115-123.
    2. Theil, Henri, 1977. "The Independent Inputs of Production," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1303-1327, September.
    3. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    4. Langley, Suchada V. & Guigale, Marcelo & Meyers, William H., 2000. "International Financial Volatility and Agricultural Commodity Trade: A Primer," Staff General Research Papers Archive 5054, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Wolak, Frank A & Kolstad, Charles D, 1991. "A Model of Homogeneous Input Demand under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 514-538, June.
    6. Wang, Kai-Li & Barrett, Christopher B., 2007. "Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 1-31, August.
    7. Guedae Cho & Ian M. Sheldon & Steve McCorriston, 2002. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 931-942.
    8. Leonard Dudley, 1983. "A Non-Linear Model of Import Demand under Price Uncertainty and Adjustment Costs," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 625-640, November.
    9. Suchada V. Langley & Marcelo Giugale & William H. Meyers & Charles Hallahan, 2000. "International Financial Volatility and Agricultural Commodity Trade: A Primer," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 695-700.
    10. Stewart, Marion B, 1978. "Factor-Price Uncertainty with Variable Proportions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 468-473, June.
    11. Elie Appelbaum & Alan D. Woodland, 2010. "The Effects of Foreign Price Uncertainty on Australian Production and Trade," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 162-177, June.
    12. Andrew Muhammad, 2012. "Source Diversification and Import Price Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(3), pages 801-814.
    13. Margot Anderson & Philip Garcia, 1989. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and the Demand for U.S. Soybeans," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(3), pages 721-729.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shaobin Zhang & Baofeng Shi, 2024. "The Asymmetric Tail Risk Spillover from the International Soybean Market to China’s Soybean Industry Chain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dengjun Zhang, 2015. "The trade effect of price risk: a system-wide approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1149-1167, May.
    2. Jin, Y. & Jin, S., 2018. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Export: Evidence from Chinese Food Firm-level Data," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277197, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Páll, Zsombor, 2015. "Three essays on the Russian wheat export," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 80, number 80.
    4. Yuan, Yan & Awokuse, Titus O., 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility And U.S. Poultry Exports: Evidence From Panel Data," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22083, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2008. "Identifying Macroeconomic Linkages to U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 56(1), pages 63-77, March.
    6. Wesley, J.D. & Shen, Xuan & Li, Sheng & Wilson, Norbert L.W., 2012. "Agricultural Trade Bias in Exchange Rate Volatility Effect Estimation: An Application of Meta-Regression Analysis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124870, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Jones, Keithly G., 2006. "The Effect of Relative Prices and Exchange Rates on Domestic Market Share of U.S. Red-Meat Utilization," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25424, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Huang, Biing-Wen & Chen, Meng-Gu & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Modelling risk in agricultural finance: Application to the poultry industry in Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 1472-1487.
    9. Antoine Gervais, 2021. "Global sourcing under uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1103-1135, November.
    10. Hossain, A K M Nurul & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Technical change in U.S. industries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 579-600.
    11. Elie Appelbaum & Alan D. Woodland, 2010. "The Effects of Foreign Price Uncertainty on Australian Production and Trade," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 162-177, June.
    12. Guy Meunier, 2014. "Risk Aversion and Technology Portfolios," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(4), pages 347-365, June.
    13. Li, Haoran & Wan, Xibo & Zhang, Wendong, 2021. "How do Firms Respond to Long-term Political Tensions? Evidence from Chinese Food Importers," ISU General Staff Papers 202106020700001118, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Davis, Christopher G. & Taha, Fawzi A., 2015. "The impact of exchange rate risk on Africa's imports of world poultry," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 54(2), September.
    15. Chang, Chia-Lin & Huang, Biing-Wen & Chen, Meng-Gu & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "Modelling the asymmetric volatility in hog prices in Taiwan: The impact of joining the WTO," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1491-1506.
    16. Andino, Jose & Mulik, Kranti & Koo, Won W., 2005. "The Impact Of Brazil And Argentina'S Currency Devaluation On U.S. Soybean Trade," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 23486, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    17. Dahl, Christian M. & Iglesias, Emma M., 2009. "Volatility spill-overs in commodity spot prices: New empirical results," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 601-607, May.
    18. Gervais, Antoine, 2018. "Uncertainty, risk aversion and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-158.
    19. Kandilov, Ivan T. & Leblebicioglu, AslI, 2011. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on plant-level investment: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 220-230, March.
    20. Ferto, Imre & Fogarasi, Jozsef, 2011. "On Trade Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Institutional Quality: The Case of Central European Countries," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114351, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:188-197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1520-6297 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.