Identifying macroeconomic linkages to US agricultural trade balance
This study explores the short-run and long-run relationships between the U.S. agricultural trade balance and domestic macroeconomic aggregates and agricultural variables. We use cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction model with quarterly data for 1981-2003. The results show that, in the long-run, the exchange rate, agricultural price, and disposable income are weakly exogenous in the U.S. agricultural sector and have significant effects on the trade balance. The combined short-run dynamic effects of the exchange rate, agricultural price and production, and disposable income jointly explain changes in the trade balance.
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- David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The S-Curve," NBER Working Papers 4242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Orden, David, 2000. "Exchange Rate Effects On Agricultural Trade And Trade Relations," Policy Harmonization and Adjustment in the North American Agricultural and Food Industry; Proceedings of the 5th Agricultural and Food Policy - 1999 16803, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "Dynamics of the U.S. trade with developing countries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 37(2), pages 1-11, January-M.
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- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
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