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Alternative subsidy reduction paths: the role of fiscal and monetary policy linkages

  • Ardeni, Pier-Giorgio
  • Rausser, Gordon C.

In the case of U. S. agricultural policy, this paper shows how governmental intervention can be formally incorporated in a conditional-vector-error-correcting model. From the resulting theoretical framework and empirical analysis, formal hypotheses are tested regarding both forward and backward linkages among money, exchange rates, and agricultural and non-agricultural markets. Consistent with the current Uruguay Round of the GATT negotiations, a number of policy simulations are conducted with the constructed with the constructed empirical model. Phased reductions in the degree of subsidization in the U.S. agricultural sector are shown, through these policy simulations, to alter the feedback effects from money to prices as well as the dynamic path for exchange rates.

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Paper provided by Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley in its series Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series with number qt5074f3vq.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 1990
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt5074f3vq
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  1. Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December.
  2. Rausser, Gordon C. & James, Chalfant A. & Love, H. Alan & Stamoulis, Kostas G., 1986. "Macroeconomic linkages, taxes, and subsidies in the U.S. agricultural sector," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt1nj635tk, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  3. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  4. Fischer, Stanley, 1982. "Relative price variability and inflation in the United States and Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 171-196.
  5. Cukierman, Alex & Wachtel, Paul, 1982. "Relative Price Variability and Nonuniform Inflationary Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 146-57, February.
  6. Cukierman, Alex, 1979. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level: A Suggested Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 444-47, June.
  7. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
  8. Cukierman, Alex & Wachtel, Paul, 1979. "Differential Inflationary Expectations and the Variability of the Rate of Inflation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 595-609, September.
  9. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fischer, Stanley, 1982. "Relative price variability and inflation in the United States and Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 171-196.
  11. Ardeni, Pier-Giorgio & Rausser, Gordon C., 1992. "Interactions among money, exchange rates, and commodity prices," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt8bg30713, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  12. Rausser, Gordon C., 1985. "Agriculture, trade, and macroeconomics," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7gb46609, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  13. Chambers, Robert G. & Just, Richard E., 1982. "An investigation of the effect of monetary factors on agriculture," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 235-247.
  14. Arthur M. Okun, 1975. "Inflation: Its Mechanics and Welfare Costs," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 351-402.
  15. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  16. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  17. Vining, Daniel R, Jr & Elwertowski, Thomas C, 1976. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 699-708, September.
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