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The J-Curve Phenomenon: Myth or Reality?

  • Baek, Jungho
  • Mulik, Kranti
  • Koo, Won W.

This study examines the J-curve phenomenon for the U.S. agricultural trade and compares the effect on agricultural trade relative to the U.S. non-agricultural trade. For this purpose, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is adopted to estimate bilateral trade data between the U.S. and her three major trading partners ¦¡ Japan, Canada and Mexico. We find little evidence of the J-curve for the U.S. agricultural trade with Japan, Canada and Mexico. For the non-agricultural trade, on the other hand, the behavior of the U.S. trade with industrialized economies such as Japan and Canada follows the J-curve, but not with developing economies such as Mexico.

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Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA with number 21382.

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Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21382
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