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Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture

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  • Baek, Jungho
  • Koo, Won W.
  • Mulik, Kranti

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic effects of changes in exchange rates on bilateral trade of agricultural products between the United States and its 15 major trading partners. Special attention is paid to investigate whether or not the J-curve hypothesis holds for U.S. agricultural trade. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied to quarterly time-series data from 1989 and 2007. Results show that the exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining the short- and long-run behavior of U.S. agricultural trade. However, we find little evidence of the J-curve phenomenon for U.S. agricultural products with the United States’ major trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W. & Mulik, Kranti, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 38(2), October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:55546
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gong, Li & Kinnucan, Henry, 2015. "Effects of Recession and Dollar Weakening on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196612, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. M. Ershad HUSSAIN & Mahfuzul HAQUE, 2014. "Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 231-240, December.
    3. Hussain, M. Ershad & Haque, Mahfuzul, 2014. "Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 231-240.
    4. Yazici, Mehmet & Qamarul Islam, M., 2012. "Exchange Rate and Turkish Agricultural Trade Balance with EU," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), June.

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