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Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture

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  • Baek, Jungho
  • Koo, Won W.
  • Mulik, Kranti

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic effects of changes in exchange rates on bilateral trade of agricultural products between the United States and its 15 major trading partners. Special attention is paid to investigate whether or not the J-curve hypothesis holds for U.S. agricultural trade. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied to quarterly time-series data from 1989 and 2007. Results show that the exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining the short- and long-run behavior of U.S. agricultural trade. However, we find little evidence of the J-curve phenomenon for U.S. agricultural products with the United States’ major trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W. & Mulik, Kranti, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 213-228, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:agrerw:v:38:y:2009:i:02:p:213-228_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamad, Mudhafar Ahmed & Falsafian, Azadeh, 2024. "Modeling Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Agricultural Trade Balance: Evidence from Iran and Iraq," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 16(2), June.
    2. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "The J-curve Effect in Agricultural Commodity Trade: An Empirical Study of South East Asian Economies," MPRA Paper 106701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Baek, Jungho, 2020. "An asymmetric approach to the oil prices-trade balance nexus: New evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and her 14 trading partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 199-209.
    4. M. Ershad HUSSAIN & Mahfuzul HAQUE, 2014. "Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 231-240, December.
    5. Cem IŞIK & Magdalena RADULESCU & Aleksandra FEDAJEV, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance: the case of Spain," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 221-237, June.
    6. Ayşen SİVRİKAYA & Serdar ONGAN, 2019. "BREXIT and the J-Curve Hypothesis for the UK: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(40).
    7. Hussain, M. Ershad & Haque, Mahfuzul, 2014. "Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 231-240.
    8. Yazici, Mehmet & Qamarul Islam, M., 2012. "Exchange Rate and Turkish Agricultural Trade Balance with EU," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13.
    9. Behzad Fakari Sardehae & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2023. "Exchange Rate and Agricultural Trade: Evidence from Iran," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 302-308.
    10. Muhammad Zubair Chishti, 2025. "The scientific tale of the nexus between oil prices, macroeconomic uncertainty and Pakistan's exports to its major trading partners: Insights from advanced methods," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 2130-2162, July.
    11. Gong, Li & Kinnucan, Henry, 2015. "Effects of Recession and Dollar Weakening on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196612, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    12. Kofi Aaron A-O Agyei-Henaku & Charlotte Badu-Prah & Akua Agyeiwaa-Afrane & Ferguson K. Gidiglo & Francis Y. Srofenyoh & Justice G. Djokoto, 2024. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 67(3), pages 91-126.
    13. Jungho Baek & Yoon Jung Choi, 2020. "Do oil price changes really matter to the trade balance? Evidence from Korea‐ASEAN commodity trade data," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 250-278, September.

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