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Granger Causality From The Exchange Rate To Agricultural Prices And Export Sales

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  • Bradshaw, Girard W.
  • Orden, David

Abstract

In-sample and out-of-sample Granger causality tests are applied to determine whether the real trade-weighted agricultural exchange rate helps predict monthly real prices and export sales of wheat, corn, and soybeans. An ARIMA model, alternative univariate and bivariate autoregressive models, and a restricted bivariate autoregressive model based on Hsiao's procedure are specified for each variable. Results of the causality are shown to be sensitive to specification choice. Forecasting performance of the models is compared and out-of-sample Granger causality is determined using univariate and bivariate models with the best (lowest mean-square forecast error) forecasting accuracy. These tests provide evidence supportive of Granger causality from the exchange rate to export sales, while the evidence on causality from the exchange rate to prices is mixed.

Suggested Citation

  • Bradshaw, Girard W. & Orden, David, 1990. "Granger Causality From The Exchange Rate To Agricultural Prices And Export Sales," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32503
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.32503
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Goodwin, Barry K., 1992. "Forecasting Cattle Prices in the Presence of Structural Change," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 11-22, December.
    4. Cho, Gyu D., 1992. "Weekly Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 321343, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W. & Mulik, Kranti, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 1-16, October.
    6. Yu Zhao & Xi Zhang & Zhongshun Shi & Lei He, 2017. "Grain Price Forecasting Using a Hybrid Stochastic Method," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(05), pages 1-24, October.
    7. Orden, David, 2002. "Exchange Rate Effects On Agricultural Trade," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 1-10, August.
    8. Liang, Chyi-Lyi (Kathleen) & Feuz, Dillon M. & Taylor, R. Garth, 1998. "Spatial And Varietal Price Analysis Of Dry Edible Bean Markets," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 1(3), pages 1-17.
    9. Baek, Jungho & Mulik, Kranti & Koo, Won W., 2006. "The J-Curve Phenomenon: Myth or Reality?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21382, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1994. "Cattle Feeder Behavior And Feeder Cattle Placements," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Zapata, Hector O. & Gil, Jose M., 1999. "Cointegration and causality in international agricultural economics research," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
    12. Jana Šimáková, 2016. "Assessing the Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Bilateral Agricultural Trade in Visegrad Countries," Working Papers 0033, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.
    13. Liu, Donald J. & Chung, Pin J. & Meyers, William H., 1993. "The Impact Of Domestic And Foreign Macroeconomic Variables On U.S. Meat Exports," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 1-12, October.
    14. Kevin C. Dhuyvetter, 2004. "Using Formula Prices in the Absence of Publicly Reported Prices: An Application for Segregated Early Weaned Pigs," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 539-551.
    15. McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    16. Alaba David Alori & Adebayo Augustine Kutu, 2019. "Export Function of Cocoa Production, Exchange Rate Volatility and Prices in Nigeria," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(2), pages 1-14.
    17. Orden, David, 2000. "Exchange Rate Effects On Agricultural Trade And Trade Relations," Proceedings of the 5th Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshop, 1999: Policy Harmonization and Adjustment in the North American Agricultural and Food Industry 16803, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
    18. Love, Erin & Thilmany, Dawn, 2022. "Price Transmission and Asymmetry in the Colorado Potato Supply Chain," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 53(3), November.
    19. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2008. "Identifying Macroeconomic Linkages to U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 56(1), pages 63-77, March.
    20. Khurshid Kiani & Terry Kastens, 2008. "Testing Forecast Accuracy of Foreign Exchange Rates: Predictions from Feed Forward and Various Recurrent Neural Network Architectures," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 383-406, November.
    21. Al Awad, Mouawiya & Goodwin, Barry K., 1998. "Dynamic linkages among real interest rates in international capital markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 881-907, December.
    22. Buddhika Patalee & Glynn T. Tonsor, 2021. "Weather effects on U.S. cow‐calf production: A long‐term panel analysis," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 838-857, October.
    23. Abubakar, Fahrurrazi & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Palm oil export : is it price led or exchange rate led? evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 111229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Terry L. Kastens & Gary W. Brester, 1996. "Model Selection and Forecasting Ability of Theory-Constrained Food Demand Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 301-312.
    25. Xu, Miao & Orden, David, 2002. "Exchange Rate Effects On Canadian/U.S. Agricultural Prices," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19886, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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