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U.S. corn exports: the role of the exchange rate

Author

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  • Ronald A. Babula
  • Fred J. Ruppel
  • David A. Bessler

Abstract

Time series econometric methods are applied to monthly observational data over the period 1978‐1942 on real exchange rates, real corn prices, corn export sales, and corn export shipments for the United States. In‐sample fit and out‐of‐sample forecast results are used to discern whether exchange rates have elicited systematic responses in U.S. corn prices, sales and shipments, and whether the dynamic transmission mechanisms tying these variables together have changed over time. A structural break appears to have occurred in early 1985. No cointegration is found between exchange rates, price, sales, and shipments in either sub‐period. Influences are all short‐run or between stationary variables. The role of the exchange rate appears to have moderated in the post‐1985 period. Implications for policy analysis are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald A. Babula & Fred J. Ruppel & David A. Bessler, 1995. "U.S. corn exports: the role of the exchange rate," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 75-88, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:13:y:1995:i:2:p:75-88
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.1995.tb00377.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Cooper, Joseph, 2009. "Payments under the Average Crop Revenue Program: Implications for Government Costs and Producer Preferences," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 49-64, April.
    2. Gong, Li & Kinnucan, Henry, 2015. "Effects of Recession and Dollar Weakening on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196612, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Eskandar Elmarzougui & Bruno Larue, 2013. "On the Evolving Relationship Between Corn and Oil Prices," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 344-360, June.
    4. Maples, Joshua G. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2017. "Time Series Modeling of Cash and Futures Commodity Prices," 2017 Conference, April 24-25, 2017, St. Louis, Missouri 285865, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    5. Alaba David Alori & Adebayo Augustine Kutu, 2019. "Export Function of Cocoa Production, Exchange Rate Volatility and Prices in Nigeria," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(2), pages 1-14.
    6. Shu-Ling Chen & John D. Jackson & Hyeongwoo Kim & Pramesti Resiandini, 2014. "What Drives Commodity Prices?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1455-1468.
    7. Burakov, D., . "Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Prices for Agricultural Commodities: Empirical Evidence from Russia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15.
    8. Guillermo Benavides Peralesv & Francisco Venegas Martínez, 2022. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Trade between the U.S. and Mexico (1990-2017)," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 56(1), pages 131-154, Enero-Jun.
    9. Su, EnDer, 2013. "Stock index hedge using trend and volatility regime switch model considering hedging cost," MPRA Paper 49190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bolkesjø, Torjus F. & Buongiorno, Joseph, 2006. "Short- and long-run exchange rate effects on forest product trade: Evidence from panel data," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 205-221, January.
    11. Joshua G. Maples & B. Wade Brorsen, 2022. "Handling the discontinuity in futures prices when time series modeling of commodity cash and futures prices," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 139-152, June.
    12. Dmitry Burakov, 2016. "Elasticity of Agricultural Prices in Russia: An Empirical Study of Energy and Monetary Channels," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 551-562.
    13. Cooper, Joseph C., 2008. "A Revenue-Based Alternative to the Counter-Cyclical Payment Program," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6197, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Gülistan Erdal & Hilmi Erdal & Kemal Esengün, 2012. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: evidence from Turkish agricultural trade," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 297-303, February.

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