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The effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: evidence from Turkish agricultural trade

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  • Gülistan Erdal
  • Hilmi Erdal
  • Kemal Esengün

Abstract

In this article, an empirical study of the effect of Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility (REERV) on Agricultural Export (AGX) and Agricultural Import (AGM) in Turkey was conducted. Studied period covers 1995 to 2007. In order to reach REERV, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) model was used. Long-term relationship between series was determined using Johansen cointegration test. The direction of this relationship, on the other hand, was determined using pairwise Granger causality. Our empirical results indicated that there was a positive long-term relationship between REERV and AGX series, while there was a negative long-term relationship between REERV and AGM. The relationship is unidirectional for both AGX and AGM series.

Suggested Citation

  • Gülistan Erdal & Hilmi Erdal & Kemal Esengün, 2012. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: evidence from Turkish agricultural trade," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 297-303, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:297-303
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.576996
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    2. Mohini Gupta & Sakshi Varshney, 2023. "Non-linear Effect of Real Exchange Rate Variability with Macroeconomic Variable on Non-Petroleum Commodities of India– US Trade," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 58(2), pages 289-328, May.
    3. M. Hakan Berument & Zulal S. Denaux & Yeliz Yalcin, 2015. "The Inconsistent Response Of Turkish Export Demand To Real Exchange Rate Shocks," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(1), pages 49-56.
    4. Özge Barış-Tüzemen & Samet Tüzemen, 2021. "Revisiting The Role Of Exchange Rate Volatility In Turkey’S Exports: Evidence From The Structural Var Approach," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(231), pages 127-150, October –.
    5. Toktaş, Yılmaz & Parlińska, Agnieszka, 2020. "The Impact of the Real Effective Exchange Rate on Poland’s Food and Live Animal Exports," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 20(35, Part ), December.
    6. Joseph Dery Nyeadi & Oswald Atiga & Charles Amoyea Atogenzoya, 2014. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Movement on Export: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 41-48, July.

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