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The Inconsistent Response Of Turkish Export Demand To Real Exchange Rate Shocks


  • M. Hakan Berument
  • Zulal S. Denaux
  • Yeliz Yalcin


In this study, we examine the responsiveness of exports to the real exchange rate shocks for different countries. Employing a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology, the effects of different real exchange rate shocks on the Turkish export demand is examined by using quarterly data from the Turkey’s 15 major trade partners. The study finds that the depreciation of the aggregate real exchange rate affected the Turkish export demand positively and significantly for three quarters. After accounting for the effect of the aggregate real exchange rate, this study empirically shows that the responses of Turkish exports to individual bilateral real exchange rate shocks are not uniform across countries

Suggested Citation

  • M. Hakan Berument & Zulal S. Denaux & Yeliz Yalcin, 2015. "The Inconsistent Response Of Turkish Export Demand To Real Exchange Rate Shocks," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(1), pages 49-56.
  • Handle: RePEc:ibf:gjbres:v:9:y:2015:i:1:p:49-56

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Saygılı, Hülya & Saygılı, Mesut, 2011. "Structural changes in exports of an emerging economy: Case of Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 342-360.
    2. Bilin Neyaptı & Fatma Taskın & Murat Ungor, 2007. "Has European Customs Union Agreement really affected Turkey's trade?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2121-2132.
    3. Koi Nyen Wong & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Exchange rate variability and the export demand for Malaysia's semiconductors: an empirical study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 695-706.
    4. Berthou, Antoine, 2008. "An investigation on the effect of real exchange rate movements on OECD bilateral exports," Working Paper Series 920, European Central Bank.
    5. Arslan, Ismail & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1993. "Export Incentives, Exchange Rate Policy and Export Growth in Turkey," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 128-133, February.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 1998. "Cointegration Approach to Estimate the Long-Run Trade Elasticities in LDCs," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 89-96.
    7. Gülistan Erdal & Hilmi Erdal & Kemal Esengün, 2012. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: evidence from Turkish agricultural trade," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 297-303, February.
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    More about this item


    Turkish Exports; Foreign Exchange; Vector Autoregressive Method;

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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