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Testing the Marshall-Lerner Condition in Kenya

Author

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana
  • Robert Mudida

Abstract

In this paper we examine the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition for the Kenyan economy. In particular, we use quarterly data on the log of real exchange rates, export-import ratio and relative (US) income for the time period 1996q1 - 2011q4, and employ techniques based on the concept of long memory or long-range dependence. Specifically, we use fractional integration and cointegration methods, which are more general than standard approaches based exclusively on integer degrees of differentiation. The results indicate that there exists a well-defined cointegrating relationship linking the balance of payments to the real exchange rate and relative income, and that the ML condition is satisfied in the long run although the convergence process is relatively slow. They also imply that a moderate depreciation of the Kenyan shilling may have a stabilizing influence on the balance of payments through the current account without the need for high interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Robert Mudida, 2012. "Testing the Marshall-Lerner Condition in Kenya," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1247, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1247
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurtovic, Safet & Halili, Blerim & Maxhuni, Nehat, 2016. "Bilateral Trade Elasticity: B&H versus its seven trade partners," MPRA Paper 72297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dong, Fang, 2017. "Testing the Marshall-Lerner condition between the U.S. and other G7 member countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 30-40.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marshall-Lerner condition; fractional integration; fractional cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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