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Central bank policy rates: Are they cointegrated?

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  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
  • Carcel, Hector
  • Gil-Alana, Luis

Abstract

This paper analyses the stochastic properties of the bilateral linkages between the central bank policy rates of the US, the Eurozone, Australia, Canada, Japan and the UK using fractional integration and cointegration techniques respectively. The univariate analysis suggests a high degree of persistence in all cases: the fractional integration parameter d is estimated to be above 1, ranging from 1.26 (US) to 1.48 (UK), with the single exception of Japan, for which the unit root null cannot be rejected. Concerning the bivariate results, Australian interest rates are found to be cointegrated with the Eurozone and UK ones, Canadian rates with the UK and US ones, and Japanese rates with the UK ones. The increasing degree of integration of international financial markets and the coordinated monetary policy responses following the global financial crisis might both account for such linkages.

Suggested Citation

  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis, 2017. "Central bank policy rates: Are they cointegrated?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 116-123.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:152:y:2017:i:c:p:116-123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2017.06.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Long memory; Fractional integration and cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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