IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Persistence and Cyclical Dependence in the Monthly Euribor Rate

Listed author(s):
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

This paper analyses two well-known features of interest rates, namely their time dependence and their cyclical structure. Specifically, it focuses on the monthly Euribor rate, using monthly data from January 1994 to May 2011. Models based on fractional integration at the long run or zero frequency, although adequately describing the persistent behaviour of the series, do not take into account its cyclical structure. Therefore, a more general cyclical fractional model is considered. Future directions for research in this context are also discussed.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.387691.de/dp1165.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1165.

as
in new window

Length: 23 p.
Date of creation: 2011
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1165
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin

Phone: xx49-30-89789-0
Fax: xx49-30-89789-200
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1997. "Fractional Differencing Modeling And Forecasting Of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 355-372, 09.
  2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  3. Jefferis, Richard H, Jr, 1993. "Long-Memory Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 701-708, August.
  4. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
  5. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
  6. Violetta Dalla & Javier Hidalgo, 2005. "A Parametric Bootstrap Test for Cycles," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 486, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  7. Ulrike Busch & Dieter Nautz, 2010. "Controllability and Persistence of Money Market Rates along the Yield Curve: Evidence from the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 367-380, 08.
  8. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  9. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Modeling Short-Term Interest Rate Spreads in the Euro Money Market," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 1-37, December.
  10. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  11. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
  12. Hassler, Uwe & Nautz, Dieter, 2008. "On the persistence of the Eonia spread," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 184-187, December.
  13. Romer, Christina D., 1994. "Remeasuring Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(03), pages 573-609, September.
  14. Violetta Dalla & Javier Hidalgo, 2005. "A parametric bootstrap test for cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6829, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  15. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  16. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  17. Bertrand Candelon & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Mean Reversion of Short-run Interest Rates in Emerging Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 119-135, 02.
  18. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February.
  19. Balduzzi, Pierluigi, et al, 1998. "Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 26-50, February.
  20. Karanasos, M. & Sekioua, S.H. & Zeng, N., 2006. "On the order of integration of monthly US ex-ante and ex-post real interest rates: New evidence from over a century of data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-169, February.
  21. Reuben A. Kessel, 1965. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kess65-1, June.
  22. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Long memory in the U.S. interest rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 265-276.
  23. Jeremy Couchman & Rukmani Gounder & Jen-Je Su, 2006. "Long memory properties of real interest rates for 16 countries," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 25-30, January.
  24. Tsay, Wen-Jen, 2000. "Long memory story of the real interest rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 325-330, June.
  25. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
  26. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, June.
  27. Margaret R. Maier & Nigel Meade, 2003. "Evidence of long memory in short-term interest rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(8), pages 553-568.
  28. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Juan C. Cuestas, 2012. "A non-linear approach with long range dependence based on Chebyshev polynomials," NCID Working Papers 11/2012, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
  29. Ignacio N Lobato & Carlos Velasco, 2007. "Efficient Wald Tests for Fractional Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 575-589, 03.
  30. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Moreno, Antonio, 2012. "Uncovering the US term premium: An alternative route," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1181-1193.
  31. Dalla, Violetta & Hidalgo, Javier, 2005. "A parametric bootstrap test for cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 219-261.
  32. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
  33. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  34. Backus, David K & Zin, Stanley E, 1993. "Long-Memory Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 681-700, August.
  35. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
  36. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
  37. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
  38. Chung, Ching-Fan, 1996. "Estimating a generalized long memory process," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 237-259, July.
  39. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1180, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  40. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  41. Lai, Kon S, 1997. "Long-Term Persistence in the Real Interest Rate: Some Evidence of a Fractional Unit Root," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 225-235, July.
  42. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1994. "On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-5, May.
  43. Shea, Gary S, 1991. "Uncertainty and Implied Variance Bounds in Long-Memory Models of the Interest Rate Term Structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 287-312.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.