Modeling Short-Term Interest Rate Spreads in the Euro Money Market
In the framework of a new money-market econometric model, we assess the degree of precision achieved by the European Central Bank (ECB) in meeting its operational target for the short-term interest rate and the impact of the U.S. subprime credit crisis on the euro money market during the second half of 2007. This is done in two steps. Firstly, the long-term behavior of interest rates with one-week maturity is investigated by testing for cobreaking and for homogeneity of spreads against the minimum bid rate (MBR, the key policy rate). These tests capture the idea that successful steering of very short-term interest rates is inconsistent with the existence of more than one common trend driving the one-week interest rates and/or with nonstationarity of the spreads among interest rates of the same maturity (or measured against the MBR). Secondly, the impact of several shocks to the spreads (e.g., interest rate expectations, volumes of open-market operations, interest rate volatility, policy interventions, and credit risk) is assessed by jointly modeling their behavior. We show that after August 2007, euro-area commercial banks started paying a premium to participate in the ECB liquidity auctions. This puzzling phenomenon can be understood by the interplay between, on the one hand, adverse selection in the interbank market and, on the other hand, the broad range of collateral accepted by the ECB. We also show that after August 2007, the ECB steered the “risk-free” rate close to the policy rate, but has not fully offset the impact of the credit events on other money-market rates.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robinson, Peter M. & Yajima, Yoshihiro, 2002. "Determination of cointegrating rank in fractional systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 217-241, February.
- Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2004.
"Breaks and Persistency: Macroeconomic Causes of Stock Market Volatility,"
20, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont.
- Beltratti, A. & Morana, C., 2006. "Breaks and persistency: macroeconomic causes of stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 151-177.
- Dieter Nautz & Jan Scheithauer, 2009.
"Monetary Policy Implementation and Overnight Rate Persistence,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2009-053, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Nautz, Dieter & Scheithauer, Jan, 2011. "Monetary policy implementation and overnight rate persistence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1375-1386.
- Nautz, Dieter & Scheithauer, Jan, 2010. "Monetary policy implementation and overnight rate persistence," Discussion Papers 2010/26, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Natacha Valla, 2007.
"Declining Valuations And Equilibrium Bidding In Central Bank Refinancing Operations,"
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series
07-22, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Ewerhart, Christian & Cassola, Nuno & Valla, Natacha, 2010. "Declining valuations and equilibrium bidding in central bank refinancing operations," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 30-43, January.
- Ewerhart, Christian & Cassola, Nuno & Valla, Natacha, 2006. "Declining valuations and equilibrium bidding in central bank refinancing operations," Working Paper Series 0668, European Central Bank.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen EJjerksov & Natacha Valla, .
"Manipulation in Money Markets,"
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series
06-29, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2008:q:4:a:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.