IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v34y2015icp34-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Volatility co-movements: A time-scale decomposition analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Cipollini, Andrea
  • Cascio, Iolanda Lo
  • Muzzioli, Silvia

Abstract

In this paper, we are interested in detecting contagion from US to European stock market volatilities in the period immediately after the Lehman Brothers collapse. The analysis is based on a factor decomposition of the covariance matrix, in the time and frequency domain, using wavelets. The analysis aims to disentangle two components of volatility contagion (anticipated and unanticipated by the market). Once we focus on standardized factor loadings, the results show no evidence of contagion (from the US) in market expectations (coming from implied volatility) and evidence of unanticipated contagion (coming from the volatility risk premium) for almost any European country. Finally, the estimation of a three-factor model specification shows that a European common shock plays an important role in determining volatility co-movements mainly in the tranquil period, while in the period of financial turmoil, the US common shock is the main driver of volatility co-movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Cipollini, Andrea & Cascio, Iolanda Lo & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2015. "Volatility co-movements: A time-scale decomposition analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 34-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:34:y:2015:i:c:p:34-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.08.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539815000882
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.08.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    2. Andrea Buraschi & Fabio Trojani & Andrea Vedolin, 2014. "When Uncertainty Blows in the Orchard: Comovement and Equilibrium Volatility Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 101-137, February.
    3. Bodart, Vincent & Candelon, Bertrand, 2009. "Evidence of interdependence and contagion using a frequency domain framework," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 140-150, June.
    4. Kellard, Neil & Dunis, Christian & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2010. "Foreign exchange, fractional cointegration and the implied-realized volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891, April.
    5. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Modeling Short-Term Interest Rate Spreads in the Euro Money Market," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 1-37, December.
    6. Gallegati, Marco, 2012. "A wavelet-based approach to test for financial market contagion," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3491-3497.
    7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas, 2007. "Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1245-1277, April.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2014. "The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 181-192.
    9. Jung, R.C. & Maderitsch, R., 2014. "Structural breaks in volatility spillovers between international financial markets: Contagion or mere interdependence?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 331-342.
    10. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
    11. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    12. Rua, António & Nunes, Luís C., 2009. "International comovement of stock market returns: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 632-639, September.
    13. Natividad Blasco & Pilar Corredor & Sandra Ferreruela, 2012. "Does herding affect volatility? Implications for the Spanish stock market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 311-327, July.
    14. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    15. Velasco, Carlos, 1999. "Non-stationary log-periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 325-371, August.
    16. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June.
    17. Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2014. "On financial contagion and implied market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 21-30.
    18. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan, 2010. "Unobservable shocks as carriers of contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1008-1021, May.
    19. Fabienne Comte & Eric Renault, 1998. "Long memory in continuous‐time stochastic volatility models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 291-323, October.
    20. Federico M. Bandi & Benoit Perron, 2006. "Long Memory and the Relation Between Implied and Realized Volatility," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 636-670.
    21. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    22. Silvia Muzzioli, 2013. "The Information Content of Option-Based Forecasts of Volatility: Evidence from the Italian Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-46.
    23. Bollerslev, Tim & Osterrieder, Daniela & Sizova, Natalia & Tauchen, George, 2013. "Risk and return: Long-run relations, fractional cointegration, and return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 409-424.
    24. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2005. "Testing for contagion: a conditional correlation analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 476-489, June.
    25. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2009. "Variance Risk Premiums," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1311-1341, March.
    26. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    27. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015. "Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
    28. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119.
    29. Mikko Ranta, 2013. "Contagion among major world markets: a wavelet approach," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(2), pages 133-149, March.
    30. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "Asymptotic normality of narrow-band least squares in the stationary fractional cointegration model and volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 343-371, July.
    31. Jiang, George J. & Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Volatility spillovers and the effect of news announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2260-2273.
    32. Silvia Muzzioli, 2013. "The Forecasting Performance of Corridor Implied Volatility in the Italian Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 359-386, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cipollini, Andrea & Lo Cascio, Iolanda & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2018. "Risk aversion connectedness in five European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 68-79.
    2. Andrea Cipollini & Iolanda Lo Cascio & Silvia Muzzioli, 2015. "Financial connectedness among European volatility risk premia," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0058, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    3. Cipollini, Andrea & Cascio, Iolanda Lo & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2015. "Volatility co-movements: A time-scale decomposition analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 34-44.
    4. Andrea Cipollini & Iolanda Lo Cascio & Silvia Muzzioli, 2015. "Financial connectedness among European volatility risk premia," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 15112, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    5. Andrea Cipollini & Iolanda Lo Cascio & Silvia Muzzioli, 2014. "Volatility risk premia and financial connectedness," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 109, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    6. Andrea Cipollini & Iolanda Lo Cascio & Silvia Muzzioli, 2014. "Volatility risk premia and financial connectedness," Department of Economics 0047, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Osterrieder, Daniela & Sizova, Natalia & Tauchen, George, 2013. "Risk and return: Long-run relations, fractional cointegration, and return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 409-424.
    8. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan & Yang, Minxian, 2015. "Endogenous crisis dating and contagion using smooth transition structural GARCH," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 71-79.
    9. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2016. "Contagion in International Stock and Currency Markets During Recent Crisis Episodes," Working papers 258, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    10. Mardi Dungey & Eric Renault, 2018. "Identifying contagion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 227-250, March.
    11. Martín-Barragán, Belén & Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Correlations between oil and stock markets: A wavelet-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 212-227.
    12. Flavin, Thomas J. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Unalmis, Deren, 2008. "On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 280-301, December.
    13. Andersen, Torben G. & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2021. "Consistent inference for predictive regressions in persistent economic systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 215-244.
    14. Andersen, Torben G. & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2022. "Testing for parameter instability and structural change in persistent predictive regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 361-386.
    15. Kohonen, Anssi, 2013. "On detection of volatility spillovers in overlapping stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 140-158.
    16. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306, Decembrie.
    17. MArdi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzales-Hermosillo & Vance L. Martin & Chrismin Tang, 2008. "Are Financial Crises Alike?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Kumar, Dilip, 2017. "Realized volatility transmission from crude oil to equity sectors: A study with economic significance analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 149-167.
    19. Maria Kasch & Massimiliano Caporin, 2013. "Volatility Threshold Dynamic Conditional Correlations: An International Analysis," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(4), pages 706-742, September.
    20. Burzala, Milda Maria, 2016. "Contagion effects in selected European capital markets during the financial crisis of 2007–2009," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 556-571.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Implied volatility; Realized volatility; Volatility risk premium; Contagion; Heteroskedasticity bias; Wavelets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:34:y:2015:i:c:p:34-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.