IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Modeling Financial Contagion Using Mutually Exciting Jump Processes

  • Yacine Aït-Sahalia
  • Julio Cacho-Diaz
  • Roger J.A. Laeven

Adverse shocks to stock markets propagate across the world, with a jump in one region of the world seemingly causing an increase in the likelihood of a different jump in another region of the world. To capture this effect mathematically, we introduce a model for asset return dynamics with a drift component, a volatility component and mutually exciting jumps known as Hawkes processes. In the model, a jump in one region of the world or one segment of the market increases the intensity of jumps occurring both in the same region (self-excitation) as well as in other regions (cross-excitation). The model generates the type of jump clustering that is observed empirically. Jump intensities then mean-revert until the next jump. We develop and implement an estimation procedure for this model. Our estimates provide evidence for self-excitation both in the US market as well as in other world markets. Furthermore, we find that US jumps tend to get reflected quickly in most other markets, while statistical evidence for the reverse transmission is much less pronounced. Implications of the model for measuring market stress, risk management and optimal portfolio choise are also investigated.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w15850.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15850.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015. "Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15850
Note: AP
Contact details of provider: Postal:
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.

Phone: 617-868-3900
Web page: http://www.nber.org
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jiang, George J. & Oomen, Roel C.A., 2008. "Testing for jumps when asset prices are observed with noise-a "swap variance" approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 352-370, June.
  2. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Nikitin, Maxim & Smith, R. Todd, 2008. "Information acquisition, coordination, and fundamentals in a financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 907-914, June.
  4. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
  5. Jun Yu, 2004. "Empirical Characteristic Function Estimation and Its Applications," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 93-123.
  6. Merton, Robert C., 1975. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Working papers 787-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  7. Martin, V. & Dungey & M., 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 574, Econometric Society.
  8. Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, 06.
  9. Bowsher, Clive G., 2007. "Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
  10. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  11. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?," NBER Working Papers 6806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2003. "What Type of Process Underlies Options? A Simple Robust Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2581-2610, December.
  13. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
  14. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
  15. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  16. Fulvio Corsi & Davide Pirino & Roberto Renò, 2010. "Threshold bipower variation and the impact of jumps on volatility forecasting," Post-Print hal-00741630, HAL.
  17. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variationÂ," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  18. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2012. "International market links and volatility transmission," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 117-141.
  19. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  20. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2010. "Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," NBER Working Papers 16223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
  22. Becker, Kent G & Finnerty, Joseph E & Gupta, Manoj, 1990. " The Intertemporal Relation between the U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1297-1306, September.
  23. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Crisis financieras en Asia y Latinoamerica: ahora y entonces
    [Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America Different: Then and Now]
    ," MPRA Paper 13735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
  25. Yacine Ait--Sahalia & Per A. Mykland, 2003. "The Effects of Random and Discrete Sampling when Estimating Continuous--Time Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 483-549, March.
  26. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119.
  27. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
  28. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2008. "The Role of Portfolio Constraints in the International Propagation of Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6647, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  30. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
  31. Xin Huang & George Tauchen, 2005. "The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 456-499.
  32. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.
  33. Fry, Renée & Martin, Vance L. & Tang, Chrismin, 2010. "A New Class of Tests of Contagion With Applications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(3), pages 423-437.
  34. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-43.
  35. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
  36. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1994. "Contagious speculative attacks," BIS Working Papers 22, Bank for International Settlements.
  37. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  38. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Raman Uppal, 2004. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2809-2834, December.
  39. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  40. Michael Johannes, 2004. "The Statistical and Economic Role of Jumps in Continuous-Time Interest Rate Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 227-260, 02.
  41. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2003. "News Arrival, Jump Dynamics and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-38, CIRANO.
  42. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
  43. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-97, August.
  44. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  45. Lee, Suzanne S. & Hannig, Jan, 2010. "Detecting jumps from Lévy jump diffusion processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 271-290, May.
  46. Mohler, G. O. & Short, M. B. & Brantingham, P. J. & Schoenberg, F. P. & Tita, G. E., 2011. "Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(493), pages 100-108.
  47. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2001. "A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517.
  48. repec:hal:journl:peer-00741630 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
  50. Fan, Yingying & Fan, Jianqing, 2011. "Testing and detecting jumps based on a discretely observed process," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 331-344, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15850. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.