IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Threshold Bipower Variation and the Impact of Jumps on Volatility Forecasting

  • Fulvio Corsi
  • Davide Pirino
  • Roberto Reno'

This study reconsiders the role of jumps for volatility forecasting by showing that jumps have a positive and mostly significant impact on future volatility. This result becomes apparent once volatility is separated into its continuous and discontinuous component using estimators which are not only consistent, but also scarcely plagued by small-sample bias. To this purpose, we introduce the concept of threshold bipower variation, which is based on the joint use of bipower variation and threshold estimation. We show that its generalization (threshold multipower vari- ation) admits a feasible central limit theorem in the presence of jumps and provides less biased estimates, with respect to the standard multipower variation, of the continuous quadratic varia- tion in finite samples. We further provide a new test for jump detection which has substantially more power than tests based on multipower variation. Empirical analysis (on the S&P500 index, individual stocks and US bond yields) shows that the proposed techniques improve significantly the accuracy of volatility forecasts especially in periods following the occurrence of a jump.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2010/11.

in new window

Date of creation: 06 Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2010/11
Contact details of provider: Postal: Piazza dei Martiri della Liberta, 33, 56127 Pisa
Phone: +39-50-883343
Fax: +39-50-883344
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Medeiros, 2008. "Realized Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 10-45.
  2. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006. "Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
  3. Tim Bollerslev & Uta Kretschmer & Christian Pigorsch & George Tauchen, 2010. "A Discrete-Time Model for Daily S&P500 Returns and Realized Variations: Jumps and Leverage Effects," Working Papers 10-06, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  5. Neil Shephard & Ole Barndorff-Nielsen, 2003. "Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variation," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-01, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Bollerslev, T. & Ghysels, E., 1994. "Periodic Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Cahiers de recherche 9408, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  7. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Sven Erik Graversen & Jean Jacod & Neil Shephard, 2005. "Limit theorems for bipower variation in financial econometrics," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe09, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  8. Tim Bollerslev & Tzuo Hann Law & George Tauchen, 2007. "Risk, Jumps, and Diversification," CREATES Research Papers 2007-19, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  9. Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Uppal, Raman, 2002. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 3305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni & Jesper Lund, 2001. "An Empirical Investigation of Continuous-Time Equity Return Models," NBER Working Papers 8510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jacod, Jean & Li, Yingying & Mykland, Per A. & Podolskij, Mark & Vetter, Mathias, 2007. "Microstructure noise in the continuous case: the pre-averaging approach," Technical Reports 2007,41, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  12. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2004. "News Arrival, Jump Dynamics, and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 755-793, 04.
  13. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
  14. Bandi, Federico M. & Nguyen, Thong H., 2003. "On the functional estimation of jump-diffusion models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 293-328.
  15. Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E. & Shephard, Neil & Winkel, Matthias, 2006. "Limit theorems for multipower variation in the presence of jumps," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 116(5), pages 796-806, May.
  16. Cecilia Mancini, 2009. "Non-parametric Threshold Estimation for Models with Stochastic Diffusion Coefficient and Jumps," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 36(2), pages 270-296.
  17. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Power and bipower variation with stochastic volatility and jumps," Economics Papers 2003-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  18. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
  19. Ole BARNDORFF-NIELSEN & Svend Erik GRAVERSEN & Jean JACOD & Mark PODOLSKIJ & Neil SHEPHARD, 2004. "A Central Limit Theorem for Realised Power and Bipower Variations of Continuous Semimartingales," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe21, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  20. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
  21. Mark Podolskij & Mathias Vetter, 2007. "Estimation of Volatility Functionals in the Simultaneous Presence of Microstructure Noise and Jumps," CREATES Research Papers 2007-27, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  22. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
  23. Chernov, Mikhail & Ronald Gallant, A. & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2003. "Alternative models for stock price dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 225-257.
  24. Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008. "Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
  25. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Roughing it Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling and Forecasting of Return Volatility," NBER Working Papers 11775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Dobrislav Dobrev, 2007. "No-Arbitrage Semi-Martingale Restrictions for Continuous-Time Volatility Models subject to Leverage Effects, Jumps and i.i.d. Noise: Theory and Testable Distributional Implications," NBER Working Papers 12963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Lars Forsberg & Eric Ghysels, 2007. "Why Do Absolute Returns Predict Volatility So Well?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(1), pages 31-67.
  28. Álvaro Cartea & Dimitrios Karyampas, 2009. "The Relationship Between the Volatility of Returns and the Number of Jumps in Financial Markets," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0914, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  29. Vetter, Mathias, 2010. "Limit theorems for bipower variation of semimartingales," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 22-38, January.
  30. Xin Huang & George Tauchen, 2005. "The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 456-499.
  31. Fan, Jianqing & Wang, Yazhen, 2007. "Multi-Scale Jump and Volatility Analysis for High-Frequency Financial Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1349-1362, December.
  32. Shalen, Catherine T, 1993. "Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 405-34.
  33. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2004. "Disentangling diffusion from jumps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 487-528, December.
  34. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Mancini, Loriano, 2008. "Out of sample forecasts of quadratic variation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 17-33, November.
  35. Jonathan H. Wright & Hao Zhou, 2007. "Bond risk premia and realized jump volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  36. Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, 06.
  37. Schulz, Frowin C., 2010. "Robust estimation of integrated variance and quarticity under flat price and no trading bias," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 4/10, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
  38. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-68, February.
  39. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2010/11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.