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A Wake-Up Call Theory of Contagion

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Abstract

We offer a theory of financial contagion based on the information choice of investors after observing a financial crisis elsewhere. We study global coordination games of regime change in two regions linked by an initially unobserved macro shock. A crisis in region 1 is a wake-up call to investors in region 2. It induces them to reassess the regional fundamental and acquire information about the macro shock. Contagion can occur even after investors learn that region 2 has no ex-post exposure to region 1. We explore normative and testable implications of the model. In particular, our results rationalize evidence about contagious currency crises and bank runs after wake-up calls and provide some guidance for future empirical work.

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  • Ahnert, Toni & ,, 2021. "A Wake-Up Call Theory of Contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 16809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16809
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Risk spillover between the US and the remaining G7 stock markets using time-varying copulas with Markov switching: Evidence from over a century of data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Toni Ahnert & Christoph Bertsch, 2022. "A Wake-Up Call Theory of Contagion [Asymmetric business cycles: theory and time-series evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 829-854.
    5. Fukker, Gábor & Kaijser, Michiel & Mingarelli, Luca & Sydow, Matthias, 2022. "Contagion from market price impact: a price-at-risk perspective," Working Paper Series 2692, European Central Bank.
    6. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Cong, Lin William & Grenadier, Steven R. & Hu, Yunzhi, 2020. "Dynamic interventions and informational linkages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 1-15.
    8. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Robles, Maria-Dolores, 2021. "Bank credit risk events and peers' equity value," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Isabel Trevino, 2020. "Informational Channels of Financial Contagion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 297-335, January.
    10. Ahnert, Toni & Bertsch, Christoph, 2013. "A wake-up call: information contagion and strategic uncertainty," Working Paper Series 282, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2014.
    11. Cabrales, Antonio; Gale, Douglas; Gottardi, Piero, 2015. "Financial Contagion in Networks," Economics Working Papers ECO2015/01, European University Institute.
    12. Suren Vardanyan, 2016. "Contagion in Experimental Financial Markets," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp580, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    13. Chun-An Li & Min-Ching Lee & Chin-Sheng Huang, 2018. "Taiwan And U.S. Equity Market Interdependence And Contagion: Evidence From Four-Factor Model," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 12(2), pages 95-115.
    14. Audzeyeva, Alena & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2018. "On the predictability of emerging market sovereign credit spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 140-157.
    15. Peeters, Ronald & Lopes Moreira Da Veiga, María Helena & Vorstaz, Marc, 2022. "Contagion in sequential financial markets: an experimental analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 31230, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    16. Rho, Caterina & Saenz, Manrique, 2021. "Financial stress and the probability of sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wake-up call; Information choice; Financial crises; Contagion; Bank run; Global games; Fundamental re-assessment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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