IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A wake-up call: information contagion and strategic uncertainty

  • Ahnert, Toni


    (Bank of Canada)

  • Bertsch, Christoph


    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

A financial crisis in one region is a wake-up call for investors in other regions. If the correlation across regional fundamentals is potentially positive but uncertain ex-ante, investors acquire information about this correlation to determine their exposure. Financial contagion can occur in the absence of ex-post exposure, due to elevated strategic uncertainty among informed investors. This novel wake-up call theory of contagion explains how currency crises, bank runs, and debt crises spread across regions without a common investor base, ex-post correlated fundamentals or interconnectedness. Our wake-up call theory generates testable implications for laboratory experiments and new empirical predictions.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 282.

in new window

Length: 79 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2013
Date of revision: 01 Mar 2014
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0282
Contact details of provider: Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Christina E. Bannier & Frank Heinemann, 2005. "Optimal Transparency and Risk-Taking to Avoid Currency Crises," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 161(3), pages 374-, September.
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Dynamic Debt Runs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(6), pages 1799-1843.
  5. Amil Dasgupta, 2004. "Financial Contagion Through Capital Connections: A Model of the Origin and Spread of Bank Panics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1049-1084, December.
  6. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?," NBER Working Papers 6806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2007. "Optimal Communication," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 594-602, 04-05.
  8. Amil Dasgupta & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Anja Shortland, 2010. "Regionality Revisited: An Examination of the Direction of Spread of Currency Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1023, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Jean-Charles Rochet & Xavier Vives, 2002. "Coordination failures and the lender of last resort: was Bagehot right after all?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24928, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Allen, Franklin & Babus, Ana & Carletti, Elena, 2011. "Asset Commonality, Debt Maturity and Systemic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8476, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Christian Hellwig & Laura Veldkamp, 2006. "Knowing what others Know: Coordination motives in information acquisition," 2006 Meeting Papers 361, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Michael D. Bordo & Antu P. Murshid, 2000. "Are Financial Crises Becoming Increasingly More Contagious? What is the Historical Evidence on Contagion?," NBER Working Papers 7900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Chris Edmond, 2011. "Information Manipulation, Coordination, and Regime Change," NBER Working Papers 17395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. " Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-66, September.
  15. Dasgupta, Amil, 2007. "Coordination and delay in global games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 195-225, May.
  16. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
  17. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  18. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lena Löfgren)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.