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Unobservable shocks as carriers of contagion

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  • Dungey, Mardi
  • Milunovich, George
  • Thorp, Susan

Abstract

We propose an identified structural GARCH model to disentangle the dynamics of financial market crises. We distinguish between the hypersensitivity of a domestic market in crisis to news from foreign non-crisis markets, and the contagion imported to a tranquil domestic market from foreign crises. The model also enables us to connect unobserved structural shocks with their source markets using variance decompositions and to compare the size and dynamics of impulses during crises periods with tranquil period impulses. To illustrate, we apply the method to data from the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis which consists of a complicated set of interacting crises. We find significant hypersensitivity and contagion between these markets but also show that links may strengthen or weaken. Impulse response functions for an equally-weighted equity portfolio show the increasing dominance of Korean and Hong Kong shocks during the crises and covariance responses demonstrate multiple layers of contagion effects.

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  • Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan, 2010. "Unobservable shocks as carriers of contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1008-1021, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:5:p:1008-1021
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    Cited by:

    1. Flavin, Thomas J. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Unalmis, Deren, 2008. "On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 280-301, December.
    2. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2012. "International diversification: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 871-885.
    3. Alexander Karmann & Rodrigo Herrera, 2014. "Special Issue: Issues in Asia. Guest Editor: Laixun Zhao," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 354-371, May.
    4. Emanuele Bacchiocchi, 2017. "On the Identification of Interdependence and Contagion of Financial Crises," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 1148-1175, December.
    5. Baur, Dirk G., 2012. "Financial contagion and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2680-2692.
    6. Cipollini, Andrea & Cascio, Iolanda Lo & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2015. "Volatility co-movements: A time-scale decomposition analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 34-44.
    7. Edgardo Cayon & Susan Thorp, 2014. "Financial Autarchy as Contagion Prevention: The Case of Colombian Pension Funds," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(03), pages 122-139, May.
    8. Castagneto-Gissey, G. & Nivorozhkin, E., 2016. "No contagion from Russia toward global equity markets after the 2014 international sanctions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 79-98.
    9. Li, Fuchun & Zhu, Hui, 2014. "Testing for financial contagion based on a nonparametric measure of the cross-market correlation," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 141-147.
    10. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    11. Lei Wu & Qingbin Meng & Kuan Xu, 2015. "'Slow-burn' spillover and 'fast and furious' contagion: a study of international stock markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 933-958, June.
    12. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "How did the financial crisis alter the correlations of U.S. yield spreads?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 362-385.
    13. Maria Kasch & Massimiliano Caporin, 2013. "Volatility Threshold Dynamic Conditional Correlations: An International Analysis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(4), pages 706-742, September.
    14. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2011. "International diversification: A copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 403-417, February.
    15. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Lestano,, 2015. "The internationalisation of financial crises: Banking and currency crises 1883–2008," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-47.
    16. Andrea Cipollini & Iolanda Lo Cascio, 2010. "Testing for Contagion: a Time-Scale Decomposition," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 047, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    17. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan & Yang, Minxian, 2015. "Endogenous crisis dating and contagion using smooth transition structural GARCH," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 71-79.
    18. Gradojevic, Nikola & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gençay, Ramazan, 2017. "Informativeness of trade size in foreign exchange markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 27-33.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6804 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Tucker, Alan L. & Wang, David K. & Pao, Hsin-Ting, 2014. "Global contagion of market sentiment during the US subprime crisis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 17-26.
    21. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2016. "Contagion in International Stock and Currency Markets During Recent Crisis Episodes," Working papers 258, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    22. Eddie C. M. Hui & Ka Kwan Kevin Chan, 2011. "Are the global real estate markets contagious?," International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 219-235, November.
    23. Jessica James & Kristjan Kasikov & Kerry-Ann Edwards, 2012. "The end of diversification," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 1629-1636, November.
    24. Edgardo Cayón, 2014. "The Effects of Contagion During the Global Financial Crisis in Government-Regulated and Sponsored Assets in Emerging Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 30.

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    Contagion Structural GARCH;

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