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On the Stability of Domestic Financial Market Linkages in the Presence of time-varying Volatility

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  • Thomas J. Flavin
  • Ekaterini Panopoulou
  • Deren Unalmis

Abstract

We analyze the stability of domestic financial linkages between periods of calm and turbulent market conditions. Our model develops a simultaneous test of shift contagion and bi-directional pure contagion, which is applied to the equity and currency markets of a group of East Asian emerging economies. Our results show a great deal of instability in these markets with widespread evidence of pure contagion in both directions. There is less evidence of shift contagion with the transmission of common shocks unchanged between regimes for the majority of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Deren Unalmis, 2008. "On the Stability of Domestic Financial Market Linkages in the Presence of time-varying Volatility," Working Papers 0810, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0810
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    Cited by:

    1. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2016. "Contagion in International Stock and Currency Markets During Recent Crisis Episodes," Working papers 258, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    2. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2015. "Is Loan Dollarization Contagious across Countries? Evidence from Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 200, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    3. Flavin, Thomas J. & Morley, Ciara E. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2014. "Identifying safe haven assets for equity investors through an analysis of the stability of shock transmission," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 137-154.
    4. Dua, Pami & Tuteja, Divya, 2016. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages across international stock and currency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 249-261.
    5. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2014. "Dynamic spanning trees in stock market networks: The case of Asia-Pacific," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 414(C), pages 387-402.
    6. Bua, Giovanna & Trecroci, Carmine, 2016. "International Equity Markets Interdependence: Bigger Shocks or Contagion in the 21st Century?," MPRA Paper 74771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Doruk Kucuksarac & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2012. "Kuresel Kriz, Avrupa Borc Krizi ve Gelismekte Olan Piyasalarda Bulasicilik Etkisi (Global Crisis, European Debt Crisis and Contagion in Emerging Markets)," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 12(2), pages 25-35.
    8. Kal, Süleyman Hilmi & Arslaner, Ferhat & Arslaner, Nuran, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 592-607.
    9. Khallouli, Wajih & Sandretto, René, 2012. "Testing for “Contagion” of the Subprime Crisis on the Middle East and North African Stock Markets: A Markov Switching EGARCH Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 134-166.
    10. Doruk Kucuksarac & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2012. "Kuresel Kriz, Avrupa Borc Krizi ve Gelismekte Olan Piyasalarda Bulasicilik Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1204, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. Wajih Khallouli & Rene Sandretto, 2011. "Testing for “Contagion” of the Subprime Crisis on the Middle East And North African Stock Markets: A Markov Switching EGARCH Approach," Working Papers 609, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 Jan 2011.
    12. Ahmad Sarlak & Zahra Talei, 2016. "Impact of High-Frequency Trading on the Stock Returns of Large and Small Companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 216-228, April.
    13. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
    14. Yildirim, Ramazan & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2014. "The Effect of Recent Financial Crisis over Global Portfolio Diversification Opportunities – Empirical Evidence A Comparative Multivariate GARCH-DCC, MODWT and Wavelet Correlation Analysis," MPRA Paper 58269, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shift contagion; Pure contagion; Financial market crises; Regime switching;

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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