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Identifying contagion

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  • Mardi Dungey
  • Eric Renault

Abstract

Identifying contagion effects during periods of financial crisis is known to be complicated by the changing volatility of asset returns during periods of stress. To untangle this we propose a GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) common features approach, where systemic risk emerges from a common factor source (or indeed multiple factor sources) with contagion evident through possible changes in the factor loadings relating to the common factor(s). Within a portfolio mimicking factor framework this can be identified using moment conditions. We use this framework to identify contagion in three illustrations involving both single and multiple factor specifications: to the Asian currency markets in 1997–1998, to US sectoral equity indices in 2007–2009 and to the CDS (credit default swap) market during the European sovereign debt crisis of 2010–2013. The results reveal the extent to which contagion effects may be masked by not accounting for the sources of changed volatility apparent in simple measures such as correlation.

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  • Mardi Dungey & Eric Renault, 2018. "Identifying contagion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 227-250, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:33:y:2018:i:2:p:227-250
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2593
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    Cited by:

    1. Mardi Dungey & Moses Kangogo & Vladimir Volkov, 2022. "Dynamic effects of network exposure on equity markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(4), pages 569-629, December.
    2. Dungey, Mardi & Flavin, Thomas J. & Lagoa-Varela, Dolores, 2020. "Are banking shocks contagious? Evidence from the eurozone," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Katerina Rigana & Ernst C. Wit & Samantha Cook, 2024. "Navigating Market Turbulence: Insights from Causal Network Contagion Value at Risk," Papers 2402.06032, arXiv.org.
    4. Marion Dupire & Christian Haddad & Regine Slagmulder, 2022. "The Importance of Board Risk Oversight in Times of Crisis," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 319-365, June.
    5. Ahmed BenSaïda & Houda Litimi, 2021. "Financial contagion across G10 stock markets: A study during major crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4798-4821, July.
    6. Hee Soo Lee & Tae Yoon Kim, 2022. "A new analytical approach for identifying market contagion," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-35, December.
    7. Dungey, Mardi & Islam, Raisul & Volkov, Vladimir, 2020. "Crisis transmission: Visualizing vulnerability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Islam, Raisul & Volkov, Vladimir, 2020. "Contagion or interdependence? Comparing signed and unsigned spillovers," Working Papers 2020-05, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    9. Kangogo, Moses & Volkov, Vladimir, 2021. "Dynamic effects of network exposure on equity markets," Working Papers 2021-03, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    10. Moses Kangogo & Mardi Dungey & Vladimir Volkov, 2023. "Changing vulnerability in Asia: contagion and spillovers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2315-2355, May.
    11. Gül Huyugüzel Kışla & Y. Gülnur Muradoğlu & A. Özlem Önder, 2022. "Spillovers from one country’s sovereign debt to CDS (credit default swap) spreads of others during the European crisis: a spatial approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 277-296, July.
    12. Campos-Martins, Susana & Amado, Cristina, 2022. "Financial market linkages and the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    13. Raisul Islam & Vladimir Volkov, 2022. "Contagion or interdependence? Comparing spillover indices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1403-1455, September.
    14. Hui, Eddie C.M. & Chan, Ka Kwan Kevin, 2021. "New test of contagion with application on the Brexit referendum," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 564(C).
    15. Kangogo, Moses & Volkov, Vladimir, 2022. "Detecting signed spillovers in global financial markets: A Markov-switching approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Wenying Yao & Mardi Dungey & Vitali Alexeev, 2020. "Modelling Financial Contagion Using High Frequency Data," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 314-330, September.
    17. Hui, Eddie C.M. & Chan, Ka Kwan Kevin, 2019. "Alternative trading strategies to beat “buy-and-hold”," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).

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