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Financial Market Linkages and the Sovereign Debt Crisis

Author

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  • Susana Campos-Martins
  • Cristina Amado

Abstract

We develop a novel approach to investigate the presence of financial contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis. The novelty lies in modelling bond yield market comovements allowing the individual long-run variances to be time-dependent and the correlations to change smoothly between two extreme states according to time and observable financial variables. The new model has the flexibility to discern between long-run and short-run contagion effects on the basis of the variable used as indicator for the time-variation in correlations. The main results provide evidence of long-run contagion effects across peripheral countries following the more acute phase of the sovereign crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Susana Campos-Martins & Cristina Amado, 2021. "Financial Market Linkages and the Sovereign Debt Crisis," Economics Series Working Papers 946 JEL classification: C, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:946
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    2. Xueting Liao & Cheng Yu & Lijuan Xie, 2024. "Do Bank Linkages Facilitate Foreign Direct Investment? An Analysis of Global Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Ghulam, Yaseen, 2025. "A further examination of sovereign domestic and external debt defaults," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Marina Yu. Malkina, 2024. "Financial Contagion of the Commodity Markets from the Stock Market during Pandemic and New Sanctions Shocks," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(2), pages 452-475.
    5. Marina Yu. Malkina & Dmitry Yu. Rogachev, 2024. "Financial Contagion of the Russian Stock Market from the European Stock Market During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 2, pages 27-42, April.
    6. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Time-frequency dependence and connectedness among global oil markets: Fresh evidence from higher-order moment perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    7. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2024. "Unveiling interconnectedness: Exploring higher-order moments among energy, precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural commodities in the context of geopolitical risks and systemic stress," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    8. Zhang, Hanyu & Dufour, Alfonso, 2024. "Managing portfolio risk during crisis times: A dynamic conditional correlation perspective," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 241-251.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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