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When is a Copula Constant? A Test for Changing Relationships

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  • Fabio Busetti
  • Andrew Harvey

Abstract

A copula defines the probability that observations from two time series lie below given quantiles. It is proposed that stationarity tests constructed from indicator variables be used to test against the hypothesis that the copula is changing over time. Tests associated with different quantiles may point to changes in different parts of the copula. The tests are still effective when prefiltering is carried out to correct for persistent changes in volatility. However, a "median quadrant association test" that is robust to changing volatility provides a good overall test against a time-varying copula. An empirical illustration on financial contagion is provided. (JEL: C12, G32) Copyright The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

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  • Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2011. "When is a Copula Constant? A Test for Changing Relationships," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 106-131, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:9:y:2011:i:1:p:106-131
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    8. van den Goorbergh, Rob W.J. & Genest, Christian & Werker, Bas J.M., 2005. "Bivariate option pricing using dynamic copula models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 101-114, August.
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    10. Jukka Nyblom & Andrew Harvey, 2001. "Testing against smooth stochastic trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 415-429.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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